Chris BlumasWalt Disney Co.DISTOP PICKOct 18, 2023

It's a good company, doing the right things. People still want to go their theme parks and cruise ships. Their streamer is doing a good job, taking the baton from linear TV. The stock looks like 2021 during the pandemic. Revenues and EPS are growing above 10% in each of the next two years, is trading at 14x PE and a dividend growing like crazy. But not it's uncomfortable to hold this stock, but you will be rewarded if you are patient. 

A few years ago, he was told that Disney is a growing company, but where is the growth? If theme parks are the crown jewel at Disney, then we're back to the pre-streaming days, not to where the company was going.

He bought more on this AI sell-off. How will AI disrupt/replace their theme parks? With this sell-off, you can buy great companies at great prices which seldom happens.

Incredibly cheap at less than 20x PE. Botched CEO transition, hopefully that's now on track. Streaming became earnings positive last year. FCF positive. On right track with ESPN, which should drive streaming platform earnings forward. Iconic company, unbelievable catalogue.

He used to own it. Sold it, because it couldn't get any traction, one division or another had a problem. We might know who will be the next CEO, which could break the stock's rangebound trading. It reports Monday.

You have to appreciate its brand power. Does something that no one else in the world can or does, and they do it very well. Lots of avid fans.

That said, not sure its valuation is merited. Cost of running theme parks is very high, and probably getting higher. In an economic slowdown, people may not pay those prices. Media assets are in constant competition. He's a value investor. Wait for a pullback.

There's been a strange momentum recently. Maybe the Bob Iger succession news is coming soon.

The Netflix-Warners deal shows the value of content, and should increase Disney.

It's been consolidating and has to outperform earnings to break out which he expects, given strong theme parts and streaming. It's neither cheap or pricey at 20x PE.

Streaming turned profitable by end of 2024, finally, after a reorganization, and is now a major growth driver. Theme parks have been the largest profit generator and they keep coming out with new parks; people are paying high amounts to enjoy them. He expects healthy earnings to come. They will announce a deal between their ESPN and the NFL--sports drives huge profits. Everything is going right, but they need to appoint a successor to Bob Iger.

It reports Wednesday. He thinks Disney+ will be good, sports TV is getting better, theme parks will continue to him while cruises will continue to make a ton of money.

Mixed feelings. On the positive side, doing exceptionally well in streaming with a great library and great branding. Cross-sells better than anyone. Worried about the parks in the short term -- consumer slowdown, expecting global backlash against the US. Hard to bet against its 6-decade growth story for the long term. Balance sheet in fine shape, decent cashflow. Yield is 0.8%.

You can't compare this to Netflix, because they have different drivers. Their movies and theme parks (up 9% this year) are doing well.

Though a streamer like NFLX, they are in very different businesses. The opportunity in DIS is their succession plan which should be a positive catalyst. 

Is up 19% in the last 3 months. Trades at 19x PE, a decent discount to the market, 13-16% earnings growth, movies have rebounded and theme parks are doing well. A great company.