Constellation Software Inc. (CSU.TO)

Claim to fame, and with tremendous success, has been to buy stable and cash-growing assets at the right price. One potential negative is whether it's hitting the law of large numbers? Now it needs larger deals to run the same playbook, and at a time when sophisticated private equity is starting to do the same thing.

Valuation is not cheap by any stretch, but you have to look at free cashflow per share and compare the growth. PE tends to be a bit messy with depreciation. Not as exorbitant as the PE ratio would suggest. Core position in Canadian portfolios.

Can't buy it that often, as it typically trades at a very high valuation. He sets a limit order for this one, and on very volatile days it tends to get filled. For the long term. Yield is 0.1%.

One of a kind. One of the best compounders in the world. Big misconception is that the total addressable market is not that big. Fear that can't deploy capital for the same rate of return going forward as it has in the past. He very much disagrees with that. 

The addressable market is huge. Of course with a larger acquisition, you can't expect the same 25-30% after-tax rates of return. But on a blended basis, can still compound at very high rates of return. Yield is 0.13%.

He targets $4,900. It hasn't been hit like Shopify or Celestica, because CSU has so many horizontals. Microsoft has a software that is applied in many ways, but CSU is different. CSU applies their various software to specific industries, like a healthcare vertical/software. This diversification lowers volatility. Likes it.

Best software company in Canada. Growth by acquisition makes him pause, as things go well until that final acquisition hurts. Great job buying and integrating businesses. Growth being priced at an excessive premium. Solid growth but high, 40x multiple. 

Awesome compounder, strong uptrend. Only concern is that if we are, indeed, late cycle, infotech is going to be at risk. Don't put too much new $$ to work here. Wait for the bigger correction of a hefty 15-20%, likely later this year.

This name has a higher beta, and beta tells you how sensitive a stock is compared to the market.

The 3-year chart shows an upward trend. The 1-year is also a good chart with support at $4,200. Importantly, the stock is bouncing off that support. Looks pretty good.

It is still growing by over 20% per year and trailing less than 20 X earnings. He is looking for a stock price 20 to 25% higher a year from now. It is getting international notice. Acquisitions are generally small and not big company changing ones. It is the best roll-up stock in Canada and one of the most attractive companies for new investors to buy. They don't do analyst calls.

The chart is absolutely flowing, but don't buy it now. Don't write any calls, because the stock could take off. Try it at US$3,300 or $3,200 or $3,100. There's support at C$4,200, then $3,750--it shouldn't fall below this.

 A beautiful chart. Let it run. But next year, he expects a correction, 15-20%. However, you can nibble at this now to build a position.

The valuation is always high, that's the problem (88x trailing PE, 50x forward). CSU needs a lot of acquisitions, but it has rewarded shareholders. He prefers Open Text of CGI.

Usually in technical analysis you buy the breakout, especially when the chart shows a staircase pattern. Rally, consolidation, rally, consolidation, and so on. Some people say wait for a retest, which is about $4400. Risk is that it doesn't retest and just keeps on going. It becomes a bit of a coin toss.

Technically, there's a very significant technical breakout underway. Highly ranked on an RSI basis.

Now in an uptrend. Tends to make a new high, pull back to the trendline, and repeat. Previous rallies each lasted a few months. This rally is just getting started, and he'd think you're going to get a little more upside before you get the pause that refreshes. Unless you're into super-short-term trading, stay with this until it ends.

How do you know when it ends? When it breaks the last low and takes out the 200-day MA. Doesn't look as though that will happen for a while.

Upward trend goes all the way back to 2013. Very strong stock. Adding at these prices seems daunting, but it is breaking to new highs (a good thing) and could consolidate (come back a bit). Lots of consolidation since July around $4400. No indicator of a turnaround, so you can continue adding.

To add to a current position, plenty of support around $4400. For a new buyer, taking a position now wouldn't be the end of the world. If you're looking to start reducing, it has to drop below $4200.

One of very few growth stories in Canada. Huge success over the years. Trades at over 50x earnings. If you look at the chart between 2022-2023, the stock drew down in the neighbourhood of 20%. Challenge is that if we go through difficult market conditions, the high-multiple stocks correct more.

For years and years, has missed growth, revenue, and earnings numbers. Overcrowded. Fully priced. You could buy on pullbacks, but it could easily correct 25% in a matter of weeks or months.