Stockchase Opinions

Keith Richards Constellation Software Inc. CSU-T HOLD Jun 24, 2025

The chart shows a definite uptrend, but the most recent high has stalled at the early-2025 high. That's okay. It's consolidating. Normal. If we break the current level, we're likely in for another run upwards. Hold if you already own. If not, keep an eye on the last low of $4,500.

$4977.160

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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HOLD
Why do fund managers continually ignore the nosebleed PE?

Claim to fame, and with tremendous success, has been to buy stable and cash-growing assets at the right price. One potential negative is whether it's hitting the law of large numbers? Now it needs larger deals to run the same playbook, and at a time when sophisticated private equity is starting to do the same thing.

Valuation is not cheap by any stretch, but you have to look at free cashflow per share and compare the growth. PE tends to be a bit messy with depreciation. Not as exorbitant as the PE ratio would suggest. Core position in Canadian portfolios.

DON'T BUY
Why no stock split?

She doesn't know why either :)  Valuation is pretty high. Strong management team. Her firm stays away from companies that are just focused on M&A growth. M&A works until it doesn't. As a company gets bigger, so do the acquisitions in order to move the needle.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The chart looks mahvelous ;)  It's in an uptrend, and the trend is your friend till it ends. Try to buy on the dips that approach the trendline. He's near-term cautious on the markets, so it could pull back closer to trend; if it did, he'd be all over it. If you own it, don't bother selling on the dip.

TOP PICK

A rather mysterious and opaque company. Well held, well owned, and people hold onto it for dear life. Massive compounder of 36,000% since the IPO in 2006. Acquires mission-critical, vertical market (narrow of scope -- such as an operating management system for a vet clinic or daycare or golf course) software companies. 

Tuck-in acquisitions are usually founder-led, mom & pop software companies. They keep the incumbent management team and equip them with operating efficiencies. Hundreds of acquisitions a year. Compound EPS growth at 24% over the last decade. Stock's richly valued as always at 40x PE. Fair combination of value and growth. Can't quarrel with the track record. Yield is 0.11%.

(Analysts’ price target is $5394.92)
TOP PICK

Owns 1,000 software businesses through acquisition. Lots of growth going forward as it buys more. Sees more spinoffs to come. Mark Leonard is best capital allocator in the world, and partnering with them is how long-term investors make a lot of money. See his firm's deep-dive podcast on this name at baskinwealth.com. Yield is 0.11%.

(Analysts’ price target is $5394.92)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Founder-run, founder-owned. Very strong and consistent ROIC. Doesn't require a lot of capital growth. Uses a bit of debt, but it's done very effectively because it's able to generate such strong returns. Decentralized model lets them download capital allocation decisions from head office to the business units. Only drawback now is valuation, but quality does cost.

For long-term-focused investors, there really is no better company on the planet. High-quality, exceptional business.

BUY

She really likes it . It has done a good job of acquiring and managing niche companies in the vertical market business. Also organic growth has increased. Has strong free cash flow. Return on Capital is one of the best in the market. Scores 9 out of 10 on fundamentals.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Phenomenal compounder. Unique business model. Via its capital allocation infrastructure, king of doing the small deals that private equity can't do. Grows at an exceptionally high rate, rarely goes on sale. Look at its price to cashflow, with 3% being his threshold free cashflow yield. Right now, it's around 2.3-2.5%, which is above his buy price.

Definitely buy on a pullback, and hold for a very long time.

HOLD
CSU vs. CLS

He'd pick CLS, as it's in a nice upward trend with more potential upside a year from now. CSU is at a record high, which might be hard to get above.