
NASDAQ:CRWD
He moved into CRWD on weakness. Really likes the space; attacks are only going to get more plentiful and more challenging. Stock's at a pivotal point, just peeked above the 200-day MA. Hard to say if it will get to the $400 level. In a limited space of competitors.
A difficult one. It was one of his top picks, one of the top 10 in his fund. As soon as the plunge happened, he just got out of the way. Then the biggest question becomes, what to buy? He quickly did some homework and bought PANW and SentinelOne.
You're going to have to wait through 2-3 earnings seasons for them to get their mojo back. You could buy here around $265 and $250, shouldn't go under $240. But he'd rather wait for earnings season.
It is a very tough decision. Sentiment of course is all negative, and the stock has lost $40B in value. But, headlines can still take it lower, and we are pretty sure more lawsuits are on the way. While we think it is getting interesting, we would still be cautious on overall position size, and conservative investors we think should trim some on risk alone. New buyers without a position we think could chip away on more weakness, slowly. In other words, we would see it as a HOLD right now, but only in a manageable position. It has $3B cash and some insurance, but is still at 56X earnings, and earnings growth is likely to fall off until this event is behind them.
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It's a disaster, but he appreciates their transparency. We will see another outage down the road by another company. There could be claims, but he sees today's pullback as a buying opportunity. He's watching $270 as support. He doubts there will be government intervention. The outage could trigger even more spending in cybersecurity.
CRWD has about 12% of the global market for end point security. Certainly the news is not good, but it is important to realize that this was not a security breach, but rather the company itself adding a software patch to existing customers. Of course, the outcome, i.e. a software shutdown, is largely the same and still a big expense and inconvenience for customers. There will be charges to fix this, and it could be a very manually-intensive fix. Lawsuits are possible. Competitors will use this as a way to try to win contracts from customers using CRWD. But, the stock will drop on the opening, but it will not be a fatal blow. Certainly it will damage reputation, but a security breach would have been worse, in our view. It will get a lot of media attention, but we think ultimately the company recovers over time. Its premium valuation multiple may diminish in the short term. If the problem can be fixed quicky, less damage will be done. It is probably going to create a buying opportunity in the stock, eventually, but as of now there is still too much uncertainty.
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The street rates this a buy or outperform with only 9-10% upside. There's been a steady uptrend since the August low and could continue--trying to recover--but she scores it only 1 out of 10 for value.