CrowdStrike HoldingsCRWDBUY ON WEAKNESSJul 19, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 04, 2026. Market Open.
(The theme of today's Top Picks is cybersecurity, which is going to be big deal. All of the AI systems will have to be made more secure. Each of today's picks has already had a good run.)
12-month price target of $192. Scale in and buy some here today, some more in the low $170s, and the final tranche in the low $160s. Very competitive area, but its advantage is its global reach. No dividend.
CRWD has about 12% of the global market for end point security. Certainly the news is not good, but it is important to realize that this was not a security breach, but rather the company itself adding a software patch to existing customers. Of course, the outcome, i.e. a software shutdown, is largely the same and still a big expense and inconvenience for customers. There will be charges to fix this, and it could be a very manually-intensive fix. Lawsuits are possible. Competitors will use this as a way to try to win contracts from customers using CRWD. But, the stock will drop on the opening, but it will not be a fatal blow. Certainly it will damage reputation, but a security breach would have been worse, in our view. It will get a lot of media attention, but we think ultimately the company recovers over time. Its premium valuation multiple may diminish in the short term. If the problem can be fixed quicky, less damage will be done. It is probably going to create a buying opportunity in the stock, eventually, but as of now there is still too much uncertainty.
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