Stock price when the opinion was issued
There's no shortage of cyber attacks and threats. That's why CRWD hit a high of $455 on Feb 19. Since then, shares have plunged to $308. He was selling, but today he bought back shares which are back to last summer's levels when they caused a massive worldwide outage. EPS guidance was light, but that reflected a higher tax rate ahead. Are already seeing a big return from AI, helping them catch hackers and reducing working hours by employees (labour savings). They beat earnings and revenues and delivered record cash flow. He bought more on today's weakness.
Earnings missed, though self-driving cars are their single-biggest opportunity. He just added more Uber and Crowdstrike that he's owned for years. CRWD is one of the best performers on the S&P this year; they had a lot of ground to make up for and has returned to past levels, pre-outage. They saw a 23% increase in annual recurring revenue, a key metric. Shares are 26% above their 200-day, so firmly in a long-term uptrend. Another super quarter by CRWD.
Always expensive, but his research discussions show that it's the best at what it does (endpoint security). In hindsight, should probably always buy on dips. Great company, though valuation is hard to swallow. Overall security software space is very attractive -- one of the most defensive parts of the software industry.
He sticks with PANW.
They reported a solid quarter yesterday but shares slid 5.77% today. Well, the stock came in hot, rallying 64% from the April lows. It was priced for perfection. The report delivered in-line sales and an earnings beat, but next quarter's guidance was light. He raised his price target--the quarter was good.
Cybersecurity is the utility of technology, a necessity. Not economically sensitive, so won't get a big boost in a strong economy. But it's very consistent.
He owns this and a cyber ETF. Expectations in the group are high, and the multiples aren't cheap. He doesn't actually have a ton of tech exposure right now, having moved to more economically sensitive names.
It is a very tough decision. Sentiment of course is all negative, and the stock has lost $40B in value. But, headlines can still take it lower, and we are pretty sure more lawsuits are on the way. While we think it is getting interesting, we would still be cautious on overall position size, and conservative investors we think should trim some on risk alone. New buyers without a position we think could chip away on more weakness, slowly. In other words, we would see it as a HOLD right now, but only in a manageable position. It has $3B cash and some insurance, but is still at 56X earnings, and earnings growth is likely to fall off until this event is behind them.
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