
NASDAQ:CRWD
CRWD has about 12% of the global market for end point security. Certainly the news is not good, but it is important to realize that this was not a security breach, but rather the company itself adding a software patch to existing customers. Of course, the outcome, i.e. a software shutdown, is largely the same and still a big expense and inconvenience for customers. There will be charges to fix this, and it could be a very manually-intensive fix. Lawsuits are possible. Competitors will use this as a way to try to win contracts from customers using CRWD. But, the stock will drop on the opening, but it will not be a fatal blow. Certainly it will damage reputation, but a security breach would have been worse, in our view. It will get a lot of media attention, but we think ultimately the company recovers over time. Its premium valuation multiple may diminish in the short term. If the problem can be fixed quicky, less damage will be done. It is probably going to create a buying opportunity in the stock, eventually, but as of now there is still too much uncertainty.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
If you buy it today (down 10-12%), you're playing with fire. It's a big deal, a big screw up and she has no idea how this will end. This time of year, contracts are being signed. A client now has the upper hand and could squeeze CRWD for a better deal. At 80x PE and 19x sales, there's zero room for error. Today is only the tip of the iceberg for CRWD, their clients and the industry. There could be government intervention.
This could be a buying opportunity. He's regretted not buying this in the past. The CEO is great and will get through this crisis. Yes, they are a market leader in mobiles and PCs, but the valuation remains too high for him at 19x sales. Deserved, because it's the belle of the ball. He bought Fortinet and Checkpoint instead.
Valuations in cybersecurity are high. He waited a long time and recently bought it at $300. He is a long-term investor. CRWD is the leader in this space. Was just added to the S&P, and they just unveiled their AI offering which accounts for nearly 25% of their revenues. But, this has to grow into its high valuation. He bought a half position.
(Analysts’ price target is $400.71)
Decent runway. Moved to subscription-based model. Involved in corporate workload security and the cloud. Falcon ID protection and log management. Blew it out of the park on top and bottom in March, guided higher on revenue and earnings. Buy here around $321, more closer to $300, under $300 would be a great buy.
It's a disaster, but he appreciates their transparency. We will see another outage down the road by another company. There could be claims, but he sees today's pullback as a buying opportunity. He's watching $270 as support. He doubts there will be government intervention. The outage could trigger even more spending in cybersecurity.