Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

Has owned this for quite some time. Feels the assets are good. They have both depth and quality of inventory. The company is very conservative with hedging and have been relatively disciplined with their balance sheet. At these levels, he feels the dividend is pretty sustainable. He has some concerns and is hoping to see some management reorganizations, which would be positive for the stock in general.

He can’t see this or any other major oil companies turning around, until there is a better resolution on oil prices. However, it is so cheap at this point that he would think it is a take-out candidate at some time. It has just become too cheap.

Had owned this in clients’ income accounts because of the good dividend, but when oil prices came under pressure and they were making all kinds of acquisitions, he decided he did not want to be in this any more and sold his holdings. The stock has come down because of low oil prices, and is getting to a point where it might be a reasonable buy as a trade, but we are not there yet.

This one really depends on how much exposure you already have to energy. If you are underweight, then you can start sniffing around. Balance sheets really matter if you have a world of $35-$40 oil for a long period of time. He doesn’t think that is going to happen. Expects oil will be for $38-$58, and if he is right, this is probably a really good name.

Their execution over the past 12 months has not been great, and the stock market is not very patient. He is just coming around now to look at this, because it just might get too cheap. The impression is that their operating issues are fixable and they are fixing them, but you are not seeing it in the numbers yet.

A very cheap stock. BV is $17.68, and the stock is trading much below that at $11.78. Production is the issue. They’re at about 173,000 BOEs a day in the 1^st quarter of 2017. Talking about their guidance of 172,000, so really there is no growth in production this year. The market is concerned because 1) they did an equity issue and 2) where is growth going to come from. Potentially you could see this break the $10 range. Very cheap at these levels and they have a balance sheet that can survive. Likes the company, but it does have some near-term volatility.

In a registered account. Not his favourite company. They are serial issuers and the sector is rolling over. They really haven’t created that much long-term shareholder value. However, it is also one of the best companies to own if the energy sector recovers. Has great leverage to oil prices, and is a “go to” name for many, many large institutions. That makes it worth holding if you can’t utilize a tax loss. If you are outside of a registered account, there are better names out there.

This is a good company. Inexpensive with good assets and good management. The big problem is the reputation of being a serial equity issuer. However, the broader problem is, where is the upside going to come from for an energy company or an oil/gas company. The commodity is range bound. There is just not enough reason to be bullish on energy right now. He sees another year or so, if not longer, of range bound oil markets.

The mean estimate for this year, December 17 is $.38 in terms of earnings. They are still paying out $.36. His model price has gone up from $2-$3 to $11. It closed at $12.06 and is still a negative 8%, and he thinks it goes down to probably the single digits level.

52 week low today. It has become a value stock. He’d have a hard time being a buyer. He prefers others.

His outlook is that you are going to get oil trading at $50-$60, and just kind of grind higher over time as inventories decline. In the last quarter, they did some purchases of land, but also sold land to offset that. They have great land positions, but the market isn’t going to pay them for that right now.

They hold high quality assets, but questions the structure of the company and how management really raises equity. Too frequently for him. Any time you do anything, management goes out and raises equity, diluting existing shareholders, making the former dividend harder to pay.

They are trying to reinvent their story. While they may have decent assets, their Canadian business is partially showing signs of aging. He doesn’t see them attracting the interests of US investors. In Canada, investors have had a bad decade with this name.

One of the best managed intermediates that you can buy, but nobody cares. You might as well accept that fact for a while. They came up with some really super earnings, and the stock has just gone down. You really have to believe in the energy sector, and right now a lot of people south of the border do not believe in our energy sector.

A good operator. If he were going to own oil, it might be one he would think about. He is not going to own any oil companies, because there is lots of evidence that there is too much production capability around the world. As soon as the oil price does go up, more production comes online.