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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Loan reserve life of 40+ years. Good price.
COMMENT
Intending to pay down debt in the order of $1.3-$1.4 billion area. With the current production and current commodity prices, there could be another couple of distribution increases over the next year, but not much beyond that.
BUY
5.25% yield. Will grow its distributions slowly and steadily. A sustainable business model. 40 years of oil in the ground. No drilling risks. Trading close to its NAV.
DON'T BUY
The model price is $39.60 giving it a positive differential off 24%. This will disappear in two years because of taxation. (See “Today’s Commentary”.)
BUY
Not a takeover target. Have owned it for about 10 years now. If you are in this for the long haul, buy it and put it away.
HOLD
The largest trust in their funds. Expect to see increases in distributions.
BUY
Long on reserves. It's weak right now, he doesn't know why. He is looking at it, to buy.
DON'T BUY
A very clean pure play. Can do very well, but because it's a consortium it's slightly dysfunctional. Likes suncore better.
BUY
Has been benefiting recently from the considerable international interest in acquiring oil sands properties. 5% yield.
DON'T BUY
Model price is $38.83, a 21% positive differential, however keep in mind the tax legislation that will come in in about 2 years.
BUY
This has really traded more like the price of oil. The biggest on the oil sands. Think of it as a long-term annuity. They are the biggest holder of Syncrude and may increase their holdings. Paying down debt very quickly and as they do, they will be able to raise their payout.
SELL
Has not been a happy stock, recently broken this downward trend. Company is very sensitive to the price of crude oil. He is not interested in energy stocks, as the period seasonal strength is about to end.
BUY
They get a great revenue stream from the oil sands. Dividend is likely to double within the next year.
BUY
Starting to find a number of the oil/gas trusts interesting. Many of them are takeout targets. Expect there will be a lot of consolidation in the sector.
BUY
Oil sands area has been tainted in recent months because of worries about increased costs and environmental concerns. This creates a buying opportunity. In the long run, North America has no larger or more secure supply than the oil sands.
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