Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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140 watching

BUY

Looking for modest upside to $34-$35. Likes the pure play of the oil sands. A good entry point.

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HOLD

Good long-term assets.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Oil sands producers are the most heavily leveraged to the price of oil. Fine company with great assets. Has gotten a little expensive. Good long-term asset. Buy when the prices are soft.

BUY

Have long-life reserves in the oil sands. This is a real call on the price of oil. He is bullish on the long-term prospects for oil. Will provide a decent yield, and because of their assets, feels the stock will go much higher.

COMMENT

There has been a very sharp rise in capital costs for all the oil sands.

BUY

This is a long-term annuity. The best pure play on the oil sands. Nobody buys it for the distributions, but if you look out long enough, you should. It will be a money machine.

HOLD

Long-term outlook for this trust is quite good. Have basically completed phase 3 expansion and are now doing the phase 4 bottlenecking stage that will allow them to further increase production. Getting pretty close to being fully valued.

WAIT

Very long life assets. If the government does not change their mind on income trust, this will have to convert to a corporation. Trust funds will have to liquidate their holdings, which will depress pricing.

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Feels that tar sands stocks such as UTS (UTS-T), Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T) and Western Oil Sands (WTO-T) will all do well. If we get to a $70 commodity prices, they will go back to all-time highs.

TOP PICK

Not too many places in the world where you can get long life reserves of 70 years plus of high quality, light crude. Will be generating more cash in 07 and wouldn't be surprised to see a higher distribution increase.

COMMENT

There is a lot of leverage in the oil sands game to the price. The fact that the price is coming down is a bit of a concern. Technically hasn't done any worse than a lot of the other oil stocks. Look at it as a trading range for the next 6 months or so.

DON'T BUY

The model price is $38.31. That's a 33% positive differential. Keep in mind, that's before tax. Take away 31% that they will be paying once they become corporations again and you end up with a flat model price.

COMMENT

Prefers trusts that have stable payouts. Resource trusts are depleting and are subject to commodity price trends. He prefers longer-term holds with more stable distributions. Those connected with the oil sands would be safer than others.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Long-term, this would be an excellent hold. Decreasing their debt level which, going forward, could allow them to increase their payout. Current yield is a little over 4%, which is really not sufficient. Would prefer at the $25 level.

BUY

A great asset with very long reserve life. Almost finished their phase 3 expansion. Paying down debt. Oil is in a short-term weakness now, but with a longer-term horizon of 5 or 10 years, you can buy it now.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)