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Stock Opinions by Sandy McIntyre

N/A

Inflation. Bank of Canada has told us it has an explicit target of 2% inflation. That 2% inflation, using the old rule of 72, in 36 years your purchasing power is cut in half. Since the Federal Reserve has formed in 1913, inflation has averaged 3.2%. You cut the life of your capital down to 20 years at that rate. A typical individual who retires at 65 today is going to have between 18 and 20 years in retirement. With just that simple 2% number, you need your income to increase by roughly 40% over your retirement in order to maintain your standard of living. To offset this inflation, is to hold dividend paying stocks with reasonable coverage ratios with businesses that have the ability to pass on input cost pressures. He typically looks for businesses that are in rather controlled supply situations, producing goods and services that the broad population typically uses on a day to day basis.

Unknown
COMMENT

Extremely well run. With US gas production, pretty well hitting record levels, we are seeing western gas backed out. Focus on liquids production is now playing into this company’s hands in that they are a processor of liquids associated with gas production. Longer-term, this company will benefit from capacity in the liquids rich shale plays that are targeted to possibly go to export markets, other than the US.

oil / gas
COMMENT

A custom manufacturer of electronics. Their manufacturing of RIM products is coming off contract so it has risks to it but it is also extremely cheap. Recently announced a share buyback. Feels that management realizes that if they can shrink capitalization, returns will improve.

electrical / electronic
COMMENT

With this and most of the REITs, there has been a slide over the last month or so. There is no specific news around this company that would suggest a material reason for the slide. It could be that REITs have been in a 3.5 year bull market and people were taking profits.

property mngmnt / investment
COMMENT

Like other major mortgage REITs, this is a structure where you lever up mortgage paper using short-term debt which can run to 6-7 times leverage. In periods where short-term rates are rising relative to long-term rates, there is a lot of pressure on this type of a structure. Recently been weak because of refinancing going on in mortgages. Available spread post QE3, has been reduced due to the Federal Reserve getting in to the mortgage market and buying back mortgage bonds, forcing down yields and enabling people to roll over mortgages at cheaper rates.

investment companies / funds
COMMENT

Decent yield. Not a very exciting business. Not a fast growth business. His expectation would be the yield plus a little bit. 7% yield is sustainable.

merchandising / lodging
COMMENT

Most of these types of stocks in the context of today’s natural gas prices and western Canadian oil prices, are distributing more than they should. In his view, the dividend is too high and will likely be right sized to reflect the current reality of a $20 spread under WTI and a discounted AACO (?) relative to NYMX on natural gas.

oil / gas
N/A

ETF’s? If it’s an ETF on the broad Canadian market, he wouldn’t own it. The market is roughly 50% in materials and energy, which are highly volatile businesses of good, bad and indifferent companies. If it’s an ETF on US dividend aristocrats, he would be quite interested in it.

Unknown
DON'T BUY

High-yield is always dangerous. It is indicative of a structural problem. This is not a growth industry. 29% yield and the market is telling you not to believe it.

paper products / business forms
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Down 4.24%.) Do a lot of metallurgical and thermal coal shipping. 3rd quarter numbers, thermal volumes were down sharply as natural gas is displacing thermal coal in electrical generation. The rest of the business is doing fine. He is still picking it up on weak prices.

Transportation & Environmental Services
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Down 17.48%.) A great way to move money around globally. Had a disappointing quarter. Still happy with their current operations and he is adding to their position.

investment companies / funds
TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Up 7.02%.) Feels it is being overlooked because it was so well owned 12 years ago that there is still residual distribution pressure on it as fund managers get redemptions. 11% earnings yield and 3.5% dividend yield and no net debt.

computer software / processing
COMMENT

Shipping industry is tough for both container ships and bulk carriers. This one is well run. As a 20 position portfolio, he would not own this name but as a 50 position portfolio, he would use it periodically based on economic activity.

Transportation
COMMENT

Late husband bought 15 years ago. Should she sell? Be very careful. You have a unique situation. 15 years ago there was no deemed disposition on date of death, then you very likely have a zero cost base. A portion of the distributions that have been paid over the 15 years are return of capital, which is used to reduce cost base. You may end up in a bit of a tax pickle. Get some good tax advice to find out what your true position is.

oil / gas
COMMENT

US REITs? He has been increasing his exposure to US REITs consistently, over the past 3 years. Good cases are high quality assets, well tenanted, good locations, good balance sheets, low payout ratios and a very low cost of capital.

Unknown
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