Gavin GrahamCanadian Oil SandsCOS.TOCOMMENTApr 15, 2013

He does not think the deal will close. He does not think enough shareholders will tender their shares. He prefers SU-T due to the downstream assets.

If you hold this, you should tender it. There are no alternative bids. If not enough shares are tendered then the deal may not go through and the stock will drop back. SU-T played this beautifully.

He would tender your shares in to Suncor’s (SU-T) offer. Suncor is a much better company and can do a much better job of running Canadian Oil Sands.

100% correlated to the price of oil, and he is not bullish on the price of oil. This is the biggest part of Syncrude, which keeps having operational problems. Thinks Suncor (SU-T) wants to buy this and become the majority owner of Syncrude, throw Imperial Oil (IMO-T) out as an operator, and run it themselves. He would tender to Suncor’s offer.

SU-T is being very opportunistic because oil is cheap. Over the next 5 years, it will pay off. He’d like to see a lot of competition to buy it to boost the price up, so you may not want to tender your shares.

Should the offer from Suncor (SU-T) be accepted? He thinks Suncor is going to do a better job with those assets than Canadian Oil Sands. This is very opportunistic of Suncor to be doing this at this time. Doesn’t expect there will be a better offer coming. There aren’t a lot of companies that can buy an asset this size.

(Market Call Minute.) Sell it, take your profits and move on.

Hold or Sell? We know that Suncor (SU-T) is very aggressive because it is the hostile takeover bid and they want to get more oil sands assets. The classic risk/reward strategy is in your favour, so Hold onto your shares.

Suncor (SU-T) is being opportunistic in making an offer. They are taking a risk. He thinks that at some point the expected value of what the stock is worth is going to be the bid. If he were a shareholder, he would probably wait this out.

They have a hostile bid from Suncor (SU-T). They own the same asset, Syncrude, an oil sands producer. This has been down over the last few years because the price of oil has gone down, also the whole oil sands situation and the difficulty in getting it to market. There is likely a higher bid forthcoming. Dividend yield of 2%.

As of this morning, this was trading at a premium to Suncor’s (SU-T) offer. There is an argument as to whether Suncor is going to increase their offer or not. He believes they will not be increasing their offer. If he owned, he would Sell and invest in other names, such as Crescent Point (CPG-T).

Suncor (SU-T) has made an offer and he doesn’t think there will be another offer made. At some point we will start to get consolidation and this one makes sense for Suncor. His focus is on companies that can grow their earnings through drilling better and better properties. (See Top Picks.)

Don’t sell now. Stick around and see what happens with the acquisition of them. SU-T is being opportunistic. He thinks a merger of the two companies makes the most sense. He would not buy now, but hold what you have.

$50 oil is their breakeven point. He would consider closing a short.

It has been a good company. She likes the syn-crude asset, but it is a mature asset right now. So this has been really hurting them. They have been putting a lot of capital into this asset. Doesn't think there is much upside here. Also, they have a lot of debt right now. She is cautious on this stock.