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TSE:CNR
This summary was created by AI, based on 45 opinions in the last 12 months.
Experts have mixed feelings about Canadian National Railway (CNR), largely viewing it as a solid long-term investment despite current challenges. The company is seen as having a unique and irreplaceable network, which is coupled with high barriers to entry and a decent dividend yield of around 2-2.7%. There is a consensus that CNR is benefiting from reduced capex after heavy investments, allowing it to accommodate growth with less immediate expenditure. However, the sentiment is tempered by concerns of a freight recession, tariffs, and a soft Canadian economy, leading some analysts to favor its competitor, CP. Overall, while the outlook includes potential volatility due to economic factors, CNR remains an attractive option for long-term investors looking for value amidst its current discounted valuation.
Rail business in Canada is wonderful, much of it due to barriers to entry. Its transportation can't be outsourced the way manufacturing can. CP acquisition has given it a more impressive footprint than CNR. But CNR has a more attractive multiple, so he's buying for clients. Both are good, high quality companies.
Blue chip. Rails are the most efficient and environmentally friendly way to move goods around the country. A train can move 1 ton of goods on 1 gallon of diesel fuel, replacing 280 transport trucks. Economic moat. Strong ROE, well above market average. Balance sheet quite strong. Capital appreciation expected. Yield is 1.99%.
(Analysts’ price target is $172.51)Just reported a strong year to date, but their forecast is murky. There's no more opportunity to build rails. He likes CN, because CN runs east-west, as well as through the Chicago hub, Union Pacific and GMTX to access Mexico. So, they've covered North America. But it now and dollar-cost average over time.
He'd do that trade, especially because in your RRIF there won't be tax consequences. Gives your portfolio more diversification. CP has more growth potential now with its wide network. Debt for KSU takeover is manageable, and they'll get cost savings. CP is at a cheaper multiple.
The question was on whether he prefers CN or CP. It looks like CP will close its acquisition of Kansas City Railway. It will be a great asset but the costs will affect the balance sheet a bit. He likes CN: CP has had better management over time but activist pressure is forcing CN to make big changes. They are buying back stock and increasing dividends which is good for the long term.
The question was on both CN and CP He owns and likes both. Although they are economically sensitive, rail is the cheapest mode of transportation for a number of goods and they are well positioned. CP has entered into an agreement to acquire Kansas City Southern and would become the only railway with lines through all three of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.
Tricky. In a pension fund, you want to have a rail because they're incredible businesses. Can you replicate this business? No. Extraordinary pricing power. CNR has done a great job squeezing everything it can out of its infrastructure. A few years ago, CP had slightly cleaner story in terms of future profitability. CP now has the full continent and more upside.
It can raise prices since it is a major way of moving goods. It is being overly conservative in its predictions with very low guidance which comes after 25% earnings growth in 2022. It is one of the best success stories in Canada. It has raised its dividend for 27 years in a row. Could do $8 per share in earnings and be a $200 stock. This is therefore a good entry point. Buy 10 Hold 22 Sell 3
(Analysts’ price target is $174.32)
Valuations are similar. CNR 200-day MA roughly sideways, the stock price is above that, average type of returns. CP's chart is fairly similar, but trending upwards a bit more. CP looks slightly better on technicals, so that's his choice.