Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOBUYFeb 06, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 13, 2026. Market Open.
Long-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. When he looks at the forward price of crude past 2030, it's in the $50s (and could get into $40s depending on supply dynamics).
Short term, sure, buy dips in the energy space. Is this a name he'd be comfortable buying here and holding for 5-10 years? Absolutely not.
Likes it at almost every investment cycle. (She'd choose it as a Top Pick on every Market Call appearance if they let her ;) Premium assets, premium management, low decline rate. Consistent cashflow.
Makes $$ when oil is $50. Higher oil price means that it can pay down debt faster and buy back more shares. A stock to own for the next 50 years. Yield is 4.27%, and dividend is growing.
Oil prices are everywhere, and you have to be comfortable with that. Probably not a bad idea to buy when oil is ~$70 and everyone thinks the worst has passed. Trades in line with peers. Balance sheet in very good shape. 25% FCF from 2025-2027, on 3% production growth. Nice dividend. Even if oil goes down, it's profitable down to WTI at $50.
If you think oil's going down, you don't want to buy this stock. It's a coin toss right now with oil at $70. There are easier risk/reward places than oil stocks right now.
Unique company. Tends to be very cyclical, but its counter-cyclical framework gives it a huge edge. Amazing business that gushes cash. Loves it. Robust dividend. As balance sheet comes down, will allocate more capital to share buybacks, and that will be accretive to EPS.
If you own, sit tight and let it work. If coming in fresh, wait for a bigger pullback.
He won't bet on commodities on bad news. They grow production every year and watch costs. They have giant reserves. Long term, a headwind will be growing demand for EVs, as in China. Oil will eventually revert to $50-60 and this stock will correct a bit. CNQ can grow production 3-5% a year and its dividend 5-10%. He will own this long term. Is doing all the right things.
She will own this for the next 30 years. Very bullish. She likes CNQ at $60 oil, so $100 oil today is a bonus. Management is discipline, their Oil Sands are long-life with low decline, and have a strong dividend records. They make money even at low $50 oil. She added more shares recently.
Top-tier company. Dividend increases every year since it started paying one over 20 years ago. Stable income stream. Low-cost producer, profitable at $40 oil. Not overly bullish on long-term oil prices, so this is a good play against that backdrop.