Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO)

It has been the dramatically underperforming bank of the big six. Have they really changed? Is their step into the US too late? He suggests you look at fundamental research. If you look at the highs of last April he wonders how much more upside there is on this one than that. He is underweight Canadian banks. He would not chase it higher.

He did not look at CM-T as an acquisition play. It was a great place in the banking space. This quarter they showed the benefits of their cost cutting measures. It still trades at a very low multiple. He likes the yield that they will grow. He would not buy it today but he still thinks it has legs to run.

Like all banks, this has been doing quite well. However, he understands this is not the best performing bank stock out there. If you like this, wait for a dip before buying. The trend is healthy, but try to buy it cheaper.

Just had a tougher quarter last quarter with Private Bank Corp results coming in a little bit messy. Their balance sheet isn't as good as the other banks right now. For a 3-5 year hold, he is seeing 4% EPS growth. Trades at a 15% discount to the rest of the banks. Banks are at overbought levels, but are still relatively cheap. On a little bit of a pullback, you could buy this.

Probably paid too much for the US acquisition, but had no choice in order to compete with other Canadian banks. This is not expensive and pays a nice dividend. They have a relatively good Canadian franchise. If you see any slippage in this bank, it will probably come from the US acquisition side. Dividend yield of 4.6%.

This is right up there with the cheapest in Canadian banks. There are some questions or a “wait and see” on their US acquisition and how it rolls out. If you have a longer-term time horizon, these are the opportunities that you can look back on and be thankful for. You are getting paid while you wait, and are buying it at a great valuation.

He places a lot of value on a management team and this one has done a great job of turning them around. It is a long term potential opportunity but with a high domestic focus.

Canadian banks are really interesting in that after their good August earnings, they stumbled. They’ve now picked up and have rocketed. Canadian banks typically do well from Oct 10 into December. Chart shows this was in a channel, but has now broken out, which is very positive. He wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back to the high it had earlier in the year.

This has done reasonably well. As we know, banks are a protected species in Canada. Chart is showing a series of higher lows and higher highs, and feels this could go a little higher. The chart looks pretty good.

They are far more levered to housing and mortgages. It has not come back to the old highs. They are good at what they do. It is the most unloved and the lowest PE bank. (Analysts’ target: $118).

This continues to be a good time to own Canadian financials. Unfortunately, this is one of the weakest right now given their capital ratios and unproven results with their new private bank corp. They have to prove themselves somewhat. Trades at about a 15% discount to its peers, which is reflected in the price. All the Canadian banks are going to go higher. 3.8% dividend yield.

This has 2 periods of seasonal strength during the year, and one of them just started in the last 2 weeks. Bank stocks do very well from approximately the beginning of September right through until the end of November. That is when banks report their 4^th quarter results. Look for the stock to test the previous high during its current period of seasonal strength.

He would recommend this at these levels. The average multiple tends to be just short of 12X earnings for the banks. The acquisition in the US was a good move. Over time, it will make investors feel more comfortable that there is some diversification out of Canada. Feels there is some room for multiple expansion. Dividend yield of 4.9%.

Probably one of the better capitalized banks, although in the last round of earnings, it fell from being at the very top tier, but it is still very well capitalized. Has a very good dividend which is approaching 5%. On a P/B basis, it is looking like one of the more reasonable priced banks. He likes the combination of a high ROE and low P/B with a prospective growing dividend stream going forward.

One of the more domestically focused Canadian banks without large US/international operations. There has been a lot of concern about the Canadian housing market and concerns over loan losses, etc., which would affect this bank a little more than some of its peers. Also, foreign investors have taken a negative view on Canadian housing. Also, a lot of people feel US banks are good value. He favours US banks over Canadian banks.