Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO)

This just broke out to an all-time high. Canadian bank stocks have very distinct seasonality. Historically they have gone up as you get close to the end of the year. Normally they peak around the end of December. This year we have had an extension which has taken it into a higher level and an all-time high. Stocks like this, once they get into a new year, have a tendency to have an underperformance in the new year, the beginning of January through to the end of March.

Canadian banks are a core part of anyone’s portfolio. Lots of positive stuff about them. CIBC was one of the two banks who beat expectation in last earnings. We see Canadian banks outperform from August after Q3 earnings and have to see strong earnings in Q4; otherwise they tend to underperform. Seeing some softness in the general banks. Sold their Canadian financial sector positions at the end of November. Looking to get back in the sector late January. On the technical basis, breaking above $125 or so would be positive technically. Right now, banks can still move up. It’s not that they aren’t positive at this time of the year, but it’s just that they tend to underperform the TSX Composite at the moment.

This and Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) are similar in that, year to date they haven’t done much. Trading at somewhat of a discount to the others. He likes this one, but wouldn’t bet the farm on one bank only.

It has been the dramatically underperforming bank of the big six. Have they really changed? Is their step into the US too late? He suggests you look at fundamental research. If you look at the highs of last April he wonders how much more upside there is on this one than that. He is underweight Canadian banks. He would not chase it higher.

He did not look at CM-T as an acquisition play. It was a great place in the banking space. This quarter they showed the benefits of their cost cutting measures. It still trades at a very low multiple. He likes the yield that they will grow. He would not buy it today but he still thinks it has legs to run.

Like all banks, this has been doing quite well. However, he understands this is not the best performing bank stock out there. If you like this, wait for a dip before buying. The trend is healthy, but try to buy it cheaper.

Just had a tougher quarter last quarter with Private Bank Corp results coming in a little bit messy. Their balance sheet isn't as good as the other banks right now. For a 3-5 year hold, he is seeing 4% EPS growth. Trades at a 15% discount to the rest of the banks. Banks are at overbought levels, but are still relatively cheap. On a little bit of a pullback, you could buy this.

Probably paid too much for the US acquisition, but had no choice in order to compete with other Canadian banks. This is not expensive and pays a nice dividend. They have a relatively good Canadian franchise. If you see any slippage in this bank, it will probably come from the US acquisition side. Dividend yield of 4.6%.

This is right up there with the cheapest in Canadian banks. There are some questions or a “wait and see” on their US acquisition and how it rolls out. If you have a longer-term time horizon, these are the opportunities that you can look back on and be thankful for. You are getting paid while you wait, and are buying it at a great valuation.

He places a lot of value on a management team and this one has done a great job of turning them around. It is a long term potential opportunity but with a high domestic focus.

Canadian banks are really interesting in that after their good August earnings, they stumbled. They’ve now picked up and have rocketed. Canadian banks typically do well from Oct 10 into December. Chart shows this was in a channel, but has now broken out, which is very positive. He wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back to the high it had earlier in the year.

This has done reasonably well. As we know, banks are a protected species in Canada. Chart is showing a series of higher lows and higher highs, and feels this could go a little higher. The chart looks pretty good.

They are far more levered to housing and mortgages. It has not come back to the old highs. They are good at what they do. It is the most unloved and the lowest PE bank. (Analysts’ target: $118).

This continues to be a good time to own Canadian financials. Unfortunately, this is one of the weakest right now given their capital ratios and unproven results with their new private bank corp. They have to prove themselves somewhat. Trades at about a 15% discount to its peers, which is reflected in the price. All the Canadian banks are going to go higher. 3.8% dividend yield.

This has 2 periods of seasonal strength during the year, and one of them just started in the last 2 weeks. Bank stocks do very well from approximately the beginning of September right through until the end of November. That is when banks report their 4^th quarter results. Look for the stock to test the previous high during its current period of seasonal strength.