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Stock Opinions by Danesh Rohinton

COMMENT
Selloff in tech being masked by rotation to other things.

That's right. Important to take stock that we've had a very strong year so far. So profit-taking from time to time is natural.

If we weren't talking about all the great things in AI, there are some other negatives bubbling up under the surface. Weaker economic data, headwinds with the consumer and not just those at the low end; high-end consumer is seeing headwinds as well. We're seeing those crosscurrents play out more directly in a quieter earnings season where profit-taking is taking place.

Unknown
COMMENT
Approach to stock selection.

Quality, dividend-growth investing is the foundation of what he does. He keeps an open mind when it comes to companies, whether small or large. Different companies take different journeys.

If you're a growth firm, eventually you'll be on your way to being a dividend aristocrat. At the end of your life on your journey, you'll be more of a value stock on the way down as you reach maturity. It's all about the life cycle of the business, and he likes to stay in the camp of quality with dividend growth.

Unknown
DON'T BUY
Tesla Inc
So you wouldn't buy TSLA?

He doesn't usually invest in a company while it's still a growth company. This one's a little too early in its journey for him. He can talk about it, but he'll wait for a better entry point that's more proven.

Consumer Products
COMMENT
Does the current rotation favour quality dividend-payers, which haven't caught a bid, particularly in the US?

That's what we've seen, especially with politics. He's cautious to say that this is one of the few areas where politics has come into play in the markets. We've seen more of a value rotation, away from Mag 7, and a lot more into the dividend growers and quality-focused companies.

The reason for that is because we're seeing some questions around AI and the ability to monetize, as well as high valuations. Investors are rotating into more certain companies like utilities and staples.

Unknown
COMMENT
Since you like quality and dividends, what's your Canadian exposure given that we have that in spades?

We do. And where we have that especially is in consumer staples. Think about the Canadian grocers and Canadian utilties. He always differentiates between IPPs (independent power producers) and the regulated utilities.

By utilities, he means FTS, EMA and H. That's quality, defense dividend growth in the Canadian context. He doesn't mean the other IPPs.

Unknown
COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Commodities.

You wouldn't really find a lot of mining or energy stocks in his portfolio. Very few. For example, AEM is the only gold stock he owns. It has a safe jurisdiction, safe netbacks, committed to returning capital. All that's hard to find in commodity land, where animal spirits seem to run high.

As a general rule when investing in commodities, focus on the bottom of the cash-cost car. So in energy, where you want to begin is with the highest margins and the last one to go bankrupt.

Unknown
HOLD
Agnico-Eagle Mines

The only gold stock he has in the portfolio. Safe jurisdiction, safe netbacks, committed to returning capital. All that's hard to find in commodity land, where animal spirits seem to run high.

precious metals
COMMENT
Current momentum behind energy doesn't have staying power?

It depends where you go. If you're thinking the ENB's or CNQ's of the world, he agrees. If you down to the intermediates and the juniors, that's where those animal spirits tend to come back as well. 

The core thing when it comes to oil is that, at the end of the day, it's really an OPEC+ decision. We live at the mercy of OPEC+ and what they want to do with their supply.

Unknown
BUY
Enbridge
Struggles at current price level of $48-50.

Uniquely in between both pipelines and utilities. Likes it. Pre-eminent Canadian entity in the midstream space. Half of it is a high-quality utility. Leverage is a bit high, but you can look past that because the regulated utility assets it has are very high quality in Ontario. What it bought in the US is high quality as well.

It's his top quasi-utility/quasi-midstream. He'd be open to adding today.

Price struggles are due to high leverage, and that execution still has to be proven on the US acquisitions. US rate cuts would also be beneficial.

oil / gas pipelines
WAIT

Like an oasis in the consumer desert. Its value proposition is that it's the cheapest scale-buyer, and passes savings along to the consumer. A unit growth story. Trades at almost 50x earnings. 

When you think of growth stocks, think of their PEG ratios. This one is definitely on the upper end. Though quality of the business is about as good as it comes, there's a better entry point to be had.

There are 2 or 3 smaller brands that do the same thing, such as Sam's Club. COST used to trade in the 30s, but now it's closer to 50x. So if you own it today, you have to be ready for the 20-30% drawdown on just mean reversion on the multiple.

department stores
DON'T BUY
Walt Disney Co.

Going through a rough patch. The parks have become more expensive. Challenges in streaming, paying significant catchup to NFLX. He'd pass. Though valuation is as cheap as it's been in a decade, it's for good reason. EBITDA pressures are building in a lot of different ways.

There is an opportunity for it to turn things around in streaming. But when you're playing the #2 to NFLX, which has already achieved a huge subscriber base and is now pushing price and content, DIS has to disproportionately win in the content creation game. DIS doesn't actually own ESPN right; it has to bid on them. For example, the NBA recently went with AMZN.

entertainment services
SELL
Celestica Inc
Beat on revenue and raised guidance on revenue, yet stock's still going down.

With this type of stock, he asks himself whether it's just not better to own NVDA? CLS is benefiting today from data centre buildout and relationship with GOOG (an open secret). Those dynamics don't make them the best position in the value chain relative to NVDA and other players.

It's the end of the bullwhip effect. NVDA is the real, bleeding-edge innovator in the ecosystem. Sell CLS, and roll the gains into NVDA.

electrical / electronic
BUY
NVIDIA Corporation

The real, bleeding-edge innovator in the ecosystem. 

computer software / processing
HOLD

Neutral. Valuation's OK. Right point in the ecosystem. Retirement residences are a structurally growing part of the market. But you're more beholden in the short term on individual capital allocations, which are fine for this name.

It's more a question of do you want to be in REITs in the first place? Instead, you probably want to focus on utilities.

property mngmnt / investment
BUY
For a dividend-investing retiree.

Likes it. Attractive today, and will get more attractive as the actual dividend payout ratio approaches 100%. Unique in the oil world because their netbacks are high and cash costs are low. Reserve-life durability is very long. It can drive the ebb and flow of the oil cycle as few others in the industry can.

If you have to own oil or participate in energy, start with this name. Becomes a low-beta proxy for the oil price as a whole.

oil / gas
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