Cameco Corporation (CCO.TO)

Uranium is still one of the few ways to solve the world’s energy deficit if we are going to move away from hydrocarbons in a big way. The stock was hit by Korea announcing that they may shut down their nuclear power plants. However, uranium production is now below the price that most companies can produce it at. China is still moving ahead with a massive number of reactors, which will be bullish in the longer-term. Regarding their dealings with the CRA, the company believes that everything they did was rock solid with all the legal contracts in place. Dividend yield of 3.3%.

Uranium prices just keep sinking, without a bubble, which is dragging down this company’s share price. Although new power plants are coming online in some parts of the world, they are being closed in other jurisdictions. This is a world leader, but he is just not sure how long you are going to have to wait.

You could argue that uranium prices have really topped out. Uranium has really come back a lot since the Japanese crisis a few years ago. The nuclear reactor is coming back on stream, but is very slow. A few months ago, a major Japanese utility company cancelled their contract. A lot of their business is long-term contracts. They are also having issues with CRA on tax returns from a few years ago, which is a big overhang on the stock. If you have a very long-term outlook, uranium prices should improve, but she doesn’t see any catalyst for it to get back to $17 in the near term.

Doesn’t know what the catalysts are going to be to move it up, other than it just getting so cheap that it would reach the point of capitulation and so cheap that people would start to buy it. They still have the CRA overhang, which should probably be resolved later this year.

The real game changer in his view was when the OPEC cartel opted to take about 2 million barrels a day of global oil supply off the market to support prices. The Kazakhstan state owned mining company who controlled 30% of the global uranium supply, curtailed production by 10% in early January, and that immediately tightened the uranium market. The stock actually responded prior to that, so there might be some element of a Trump bump in there. Uranium prices have strengthened from $18 a pound to $23, and long-term prices are much higher. Dividend yield of 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.)

China has a lot of plants potentially coming on line. Uranium prices took a big beating and have come back somewhat. There is a good chance they go up in the future. He does not like CCO-T enough yet to buy it. If you want to invest in this field, this is one to invest in.

The trend line was down for a couple of years. Then it broke out. It is consolidating after the breakout. It needs some positive news.

They are selling to nuclear reactors, which take a long time to build and a long time to get going. The news out of Japan is certainly not constructive. He is not very positive on this. Feels natural gas is more cost effective, and is available in abundance.

Uranium is always difficult. Every uranium company has had a difficult time earning an acceptable ROC. This has a 4% ROC, and he would have trouble justifying the price.

The period of seasonal strength is October all the way through to January. The best months of the year are November and December. It bottomed in the month of November, ran up to January and has consolidated since. Now it is flagging. The chart is showing a consolidation pattern, nothing bullish or bearish, but it would suggest that break would be in the direction of the trend, which is higher. Wait for this to break.

The world’s largest publicly traded uranium producer. The stock has been in a slump since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Things started to change in advance of changes of the uranium market fundamentals last summer. Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s state owned mine, which owns 30% of the uranium market, decided to cut production by 10%, which will meaningfully tighten things. The price has responded. Cameco has a dispute with Canada Revenue on back taxes and transfer pricing, which is not going to go away in the next 12-18 months. They also have a dispute with the Tokyo Electric Power Company.

2.9% dividend. Supply vs. demand, which dried up due to the Japanese nuclear accident. He wants to avoid it. It is not a commodity he wants to do.

On uranium demand, the market is probably not going to come into balance until 2024 or so. It is hard to see how this company can do well when there is not going to be much of a lift in uranium. Expects it to be range bound for the foreseeable future in the $10-$15 range. It’s best of breed and he likes the name, but it is very hard without a resurgent in the uranium price. Doesn’t know why you would want to be a buyer of this.

This has a couple of problems. There is a big tax liability outstanding, which is a substantial issue. The pricing of uranium is problematic. This is world-class in terms of its resource, but he just doesn’t think there is any pricing power. Thinks it is dead money.

He was short until November when it started to turn the corner. It has taken off since then. The valuation is a bit of a challenge for him. The commodity is changing very quickly. Uranium has come off its bottom. On a price/momentum basis you could own it, but there has been a big move without knowing that cash flows will show up in the share price. Wait until earnings materialize.