Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

Trades at a lower multiple than some of the others in the group. The beta is about 1.5 whereas peers are closer to 1. They carry a much higher debt level than peers. Prefers VET-T.

Would be seen as one of the higher quality players in the space. Oil prices have been weaker recently and there is concern about the sustainability of dividends. He believes oil prices will not go much lower here and that BTE-T has a sustainable dividend.

Baytex (BTE-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T)? Owns both and considers both of them as core holdings. The concern on this company is that they bought into the Eagleford play in the US via the acquisition of Aurora. This is a light oil play while Baytex is traditionally known as a heavy oil player. The more he has looked at this acquisition, the more he has come around to it. Recent well results have been very positive. 30 day production rates of 800 to 1000 barrels a day, which is excellent. Feels investors have concerns about them using a little bit more debt to finance the acquisition. He thinks the company has a pretty good hedge book and he is very favourable on heavy oil pricing going forward.

This is one of the high quality names that behave very differently in these environments. Below $30, this looks very interesting from a fundamental perspective. It is highly possible that a potential dividend cut is priced into the name at these levels. His preference would be Crescent Point (CPG-T).

Participated in the trend break into October. He would have liked to see it hold its support at around $37. The fact that it is below that is a little bit troubling. Also, the other indicators are not showing any kind of strength. It is looking to test the low of $33.24, and if it breaks that, you would have to go back on a much longer time frame as to where it is going to come in. This will probably depend on the macro picture of oil supplies.

Baytex (BTE-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T). Given his belief that oil is going to be in the "middling range", you can probably put off your decision to Buy energy stocks for a few months. There is no urgency. If you are looking at a short-term horizon, 6 months or so, this one is probably the better one, because it is the heavy oil story. If looking at the balance sheet, debt to cash flow metrics, Crescent Point does stand up better. If he had to make a call, he would say this one because it has been less disappointing.

Likes it and thinks the dividend is sustainable. Likes the management team. They get a Canadian dollar western Canadian price. The reduced differential should benefit them.

This is a good one. At this lower oil price, he still sees cash flow growth at around 18%. Dividend is still okay. Payout ratio would rise to 120%, but still pretty sustainable relative to its peers. Valuation would still be attractive at 6.8 versus the group at around 9. Cash flow would still be pretty good.

Baytex Energy (BTE-T) or Suncor (SU-T)? Certainly 2 very different names. This one gives you an 8% yield while you don’t get that at Suncor. For yield hunters, this is one that he would look at. He actually likes and owns both names, and they are both fine. You are probably getting a little bit more leverage in terms of the movement in oil price relative to the stock price with this, where Suncor might be a little bit steadier being in the oil Sands space.

For longer-term, patient people, energy stocks are interesting here. You are going to have very near-term volatility as they are all about to report. This is a good name. It is a disciplined player and not expensive.

A heavy oil producer. They have been leaders in oil by rail. Management has shown themselves to be heads up in terms of marketing in the US and he thinks they will continue to do that. Yield of 7.88%.

This is being hit along with all the other energy stocks and he would recommend continuing to Hold.

There is going to be an economic cold war with Russia involving sanctions. Once LNG gets going that will stable is the world oil supply. He does not feel Russia would flood the world with oil.

Jan to May is seasonal strength period. This year it was strong, but now it is in a downward trend, underperforming market and is below its 20 day moving average. Wait until January.

It was bearish for some time (2012-2014) then broke out, but now it is breaking down again. However, there are two previous lows that are lower than we are now and you want to see that. So long as it holds, that would be healthy.