Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

(A Top Pick Jan 15/14. Down 49.81%.) Management indicated the acquisition they did last year was good because it got some low cost production, and while their debt is a bit higher, it is manageable. Still yields over 6%. When a turn ultimately comes, this will be a good performer.

Always been one of his favourites. One of the first to sign a contract to move their oil by rail. They have always been ahead of the curve. Companies are not being rewarded for keeping the dividend so why would they do so. When they cut dividends it really hurts. He does not know if this one will cut it. We need to see oil start to move up. He believes it will, but it could go lower first.

A lot of these names will have write offs coming. It is holding up well compared to the others. $28.94 model price, suggesting upside. Wait for some positive transits. There is more pain to come.

Heavy oil weighted. Great company, but it is not going anywhere.

It is getting to be very cheap. They have a big shale play they bought in Texas. They don’t control it but share it with someone else. The issue is what happens to the oil price. If it goes lower they will have a difficult time. They have debt. There may be all kinds of issues. You need to buy companies with a good balance sheet that can weather through all of this.

Google (GOOGL-Q) or Baytex Energy (BTE-T)? Completely different animals, but to him Google is one of the great growth stories out there. This one is an oversold play in the energy sector and depends on where energy settles out.

Has been crushed. Down to $15.74 from $48. Cut back production and decreased dividend. He has always liked them. They are always ahead of the curve, the first to hire rail companies to deliver oil. It will turn around and it will go up.

Cut their dividend this week. Sold his holdings last September. If you own, you should consider switching into something else.

It is too early to know where oil is going to be. The whole energy trade in 2015 could be phenomenal, even if we saw oil go from current prices to $75-$80. Thinks this is going to be a slow, steady grind back up. They are a big producer. They have some issues with their balance sheet and their cost of production, which they have to manage. They’ve been through this before, and management has got around it. It is too late to Sell at this point in time.

Cut their dividend and CapX program and the stock was up today 4%-5%. This is a name that had a really high yield, and it is almost a relief that they did this. Doesn’t feel that they necessarily had to do it right now, but feels management just wanted to preserve the balance sheet and give themselves some flexibility.

It continues to be a very good company. The balance sheet is a little stretched, however, and the oil price is too low. Any movement up in oil will be leveraged by this stock. There probably should be a dividend cut.

This would be one he would have on his “wish list” to watch. You just need the bottom to come in on crude prices. This has been pummelled in the last little while, like so many of them. Thinks it is a bit overdone. Foreigners own a lot of these energy stocks, and they don’t like the currency and they don’t like oil, so Boom, out they go. We have seen a lot of this in the last few weeks. If you own, give it a few months. You collect a nice yield while you are waiting.

Paid out far too much more than what they were earning. (He emphasizes earning as opposed to cash flow.) This company was paying out $2.88, and were only earning $2.50. Everyone assumed energy prices would go up and they would do acquisitions, issue equity, and keep the dividend alive. With oil falling 38%, that puts a whole question into the model. If earnings are going to fall significantly, the distribution may be cut and these companies are at risk. This one is at a level of EBV +3, which is still very, very high compared to a Suncor (SU-T) trading at EBV +1.

Another energy stock that has been totally beaten up. It is not even starting to show signs of a bottom. Period of seasonal weakness for oil and energy comes to a peak around now. You get seasonal declines in the price of oil and energy stocks between mid-September and the start of December. You should see the selling pressure alleviate somewhat through the course of the remainder of the month. But right now there is no sign of bottom picking. If you can trade this, by all means, but you have to be very nimble.

Had a good 3^rd quarter and things were looking quite nice, and then all of a sudden they had an issue with the tax people on a $50 million question mark on whether they have to pay back taxes to Revenue Canada. That kind of hit the stock at a time when oil prices were going down. This was followed by the OPEC release, so it is like a triple storm has hit them. Management has a really good track record of deploying capital well. Recycle ratios tend to be high relative to the industry. Made a US acquisition on which they paid a little bit of debt for it, which has been an additional concern. A good name. You’ll just have to wait and see you what the oil prices are going to do.