Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

Great company, but he is staying away energy. It could be quite a while yet. Looking for oil to maintain at around $48.

This is on his list to add to, but hasn’t done it yet. You could add this to your portfolio now.

Oil stocks are tricky right now. This is a company with a stressed balance sheet. Pays a large yield which is a concern. He has a small Short on this. Scores average on momentum, valuation is pretty poor at 11X EBITDA, and they are not generating cash at these prices. Feels people are probably buying this for yield rather than its true valuation.

Has been hit hard here. It took on a sizeable amount of debt. They cut their dividend and capital program as well as issuing equity. Things are now looking okay for them. The assets are very good. There are more than enough positives to offset the debt.

(A Top Pick March 20/14. Down 42.43%.) When he recommended this, they were on the precipice of closing the Aurora transaction, which would have been really accretive for them if oils had stayed at the levels that he was modelling. Sold his holdings in the $30s.

(A Top Pick April 8/14. Down 48.08%.) Sold his company’s holdings, but still has a bit of his own. He thinks the dividend situation is somewhat suspect.

This has been a core holding for many years. In this type of the market, where commodity prices are depressed, they have clearly demonstrated that they are a company that investors have confidence in. The recent financing was upsized from $500 million-$550 million, and he understands that it was 5 times over subscribed. Their asset base is split between Eagleford light oil and heavy oil in Canada. The Eagle Ford light oil is non-operated, but is partnered with Marathon, which is where they are putting 80% of the capital this year.

(Top Pick May 22/14, Down 54.04%) He probably should have sold and come back later. It has good assets and a good cost base and they are a good company. When oil prices start to recover they will be a prime beneficiary of that. It is a high quality company and just needs some support from oil prices. He is not suggesting people back the truck up but just put a toe in. 6% yield. The Saudis can’t produce oil for the entire world and no one but they can make money at these levels.

They just lost an equity financing. Historically it was thought of as a heavy oil play and now it is a light oil play.

(Top Pick Feb 11/14, Down 48.26%) He sold in the spring after it ran up.

Just did an equity issue to shore up their balance sheet. She is not buying energy right now and not buying any for new clients.

Sold his holdings, but might be looking to get back in. The right entry point will be when we see inventory build-up in North America start to decline. Good management. Debt is a bit of a concern, but he thinks that is manageable. His company has a $27 target on this. 6.6% dividend yield.

Has always liked this because of the dividend. Almost entirely in heavy oil, but pumpable heavy oil in Alberta, in a sector of the province where no matter where you drill, you hit some nice heavy oil. Unfortunately they bought a chunk of field in the Eagleford in Texas, which turned out to be quite a hot prospect and they made lots of money. Big wells and big decline rates. He is concerned that to stay in that play, they may have to cough up more capital than they really want to. He would be cautious right now.

A very strong company. Unfortunately they got caught a little bit with the Eagleford acquisition, which is a great asset, but unfortunately the timing did not work out well. There may be another dividend cut as the covenant issue has not gone away completely. This is a strong company and it will survive. In the meantime there is going to be some volatility. She would sell on any upside with the intention of buying it back.

If you believe, as he does, that oil prices are going to rally to $65-$70 by the end of 2015, then this is a great buy. You are going to have to be able to stomach the volatility. Have cut their dividend once. Given their perceived high leverage, the dividend could be in jeopardy if oil stays where it is. They have some of the very best assets in heavy oil in Canada, as well is the best liquid rich play in the Eagleford along with the best acreage.