John O'Connell, CFA Baytex Energy Corp BTE-T BUY Dec 13, 2018

Huge disappointment, not operationally but on the share price. Typifies an out-of-favour stock:  Canadian mid-cap with hair on it. Last quarter had no hair, beat expectations, paid down debt, generated lots of free cash, bought back stock. Deep value, mispriced, too cheap to sell. He's waiting, but patience is being tested.

Support has been broken. You need to see the up-and-down consolidation sideways to know whether the downtrend is over.

Oil is down, which doesn't help. The budget shows a slight decline in production from year end exit rates, so investors may be worried that all the spending ($1.2B) is not going to boost actual average production rates. BTE also updated its five-year plan, which looks OK to us with a planned reduction in debt. But the sector remains out of favour overall right now. 
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Likes the energy space, so he'd be OK with buying this name. Pipelines to the West Coast have opened up. His play is through CVE.

They executed in their drilling. There's been huge multiple contraction among small/mid-caps. He exited around $3.85-3.90. Shares are in an air pocket now, falling on no natural buyers (energy is out of favour). Stock is cheap, given cash flow. They pay half that cash to buy back shares. Are better stocks than this, but wouldn't rule out buying this again.

Eliminated dividend in 2015, reinstated a smaller one last summer. Has since bought back 11% of shares. Doesn't generally earn its cost of capital, and so it trades at a discount. De-leveraging balance sheet, though still not investment grade. Chart's making lower lows.

Drawdown 100% connected to price of oil. More debt than average. Risk-off market. Totally fine on liquidity. Deep value, but needs oil at $65-70 to really start humming.

It's down because of the fall in oil prices, pure and simple. He sold this around $4. The stock will excel if oil returns to $70+, but not at $60. He will revisit this at better oil prices later.

The commodity is its main catalyst and it has been range bound for at least six months. There are better companies in the space. He quoted the common saying: Let your winners run and cut your losses.

Producers always lead the commodity. So you'd look at this name for guidance on natural gas. The terrible downtrend on the chart is being challenged. Hoping that $2 level is a bottom going back to 2021, and a place "to hang your hat" -- you're not sure what the future holds, but you think the worst is over.

He loves this kind of setup. The story's still a bit negative, but someone's buying it. The price action always has more information than you know, it's trying to tell you something, there is interest there. A good risk here. See his Top Picks.