Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO)

(A Top Pick Oct 17/13. Up 15.43%.) In the banking sector, some of the weakness we saw today underscores that Canada is not as strong as the US in terms of the stability of the economic recovery. If you can pick up a bank below 2.0 BV, you’ll do well. He believes this and Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) both qualify in that regards.

The weakest bank stocks in December tend to be Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) and Royal (RY-T). The others can actually do fairly well in December. You tend to see gains 70% of the time. In this bank, we are starting to see higher highs and higher lows. The banks remain quite strong all the way through to April. If this can hold this short-term low, then by all means, take advantage.

Toronto Dominion (TD-T) or Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)? Thinks all Canadian banks are a good deal for the retail investor generally speaking. Of these 2, he would prefer TD in terms of their key franchises. Thinks that the retail consumer banking franchise that it has, is an even stronger bet than the current Caribbean, Latin American business. However, they are both really high quality global banks. Well capitalized and very well-run.

They have a new CEO, took a write-off. They got a multiple for being in high growth areas, but some of those countries are slowing down. They are doing the right thing now and it will benefit them down the road.

Recently announced some cutbacks and puts some negative attention on them. It means they are not sitting by and letting payrolls build.

Relative valuation has taken a bit of a hit lately, because in their recent quarter they reported a bit of a hiccup in their international operations. It is fairly rare that you are able to buy this bank for a lower Price to Book valuation than its competitors. At current levels, it’s a pretty good place to be. In the meantime, you are being paid 3.8% dividend yield and that dividend is likely to go up in the coming years. Tier 1 capital of about 10.9%.

Just pick one of the banks and hold it. BNS-T is his preferred. It is on sale because of its operations in the Caribbean. The dividend is safe here.

Last results were a bit lumpier than people were hoping for. New CEO is probably putting his stamp on a number of things. Given that there were some job cuts, the big potential worry for him would be on the Latin American side, is that a one-off or will it be dragging into the future. Given the yield, valuation is very compelling, compared to the other banks. He would like to wait another quarter.

Cutting 1500 jobs. That always disturbs him when he sees a very profitable company chopping jobs, possibly for shorter-term reasons. This is a great franchise like all Canadian banks, plus they have their operations in Latin America and the Caribbean. They seem to have run into some issues in some of those places. Canadian banking sector is the most expensive globally on a price to book valuation. Dividend is rock solid. In a strong financial condition. He wouldn't look at this unless there was a pullback.

The only Canadian bank he owns. It has the smallest domestic footprint. They are big in emerging markets and are strong going forward. 3.87% dividend.

A good time to be looking at Canadian banks. They have all sold off from their peaks. All took a nosedive from the mini meltdown a couple of weeks ago. Not his favourite. (See Top Picks.)

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) or Bank of America (BAC-N)? By owning a Canadian bank like this, you can take advantage of the Canadian dividend tax credit, which basically means a lot. Secondly, if you are going to buy something in the US, you are paying up for it, and that implies a potential exchange risk down the way. This is a great way of playing the Canadian economy as well as emerging markets.

A laggard. It is difficult for Canadian banks to grow so each has its strategy. It is in Mexico, Chili and others. ROE is very high and dividend is attractive.

(A Top Pick October 17/13. Up 12.5%.) This gives you a 4% yield with a growing dividend profile. More international than the other Canadian banks. Long-term he expects you will see a ton of growth from those areas.

Since 1974 the compound return on banks has been 17%. A remarkable place to be. There has never been a 10 year period where you have not doubled your money in Canadian banks. They have a license to print money. There is absolutely no competition. Canadian economy is going to grow at 1%-2%, while the US economy is going to grow at 2%-3%.