Bank of Nova ScotiaBNS.TOCOMMENTDec 03, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 28, 2026. Market Open.
The banks are very well positioned. Benefitting from GenAI and AI investments. Regulatory environment is in their favour with OSFI lowering threshold for risk-weighted assets, which means they have more capital to lend. Consumer is reasonably healthy. As long as interest rates don't go flying through the roof anytime soon, the banks can continue to do well.
It's the weakest Canadian bank. They're reducing exposure to the Caribbean, because that area lacks growth. Tailwinds for all Canadian banks: the stock market is going up, management fees are up, M&A is increasing, and loans and mortgage rates are rising in a struggling economy. BNS is still struggling. Their dividend increase was the weakest of the six. He's not convinced BNS will catch up to its peers.
It's charm amongst peers is its relative valuation. Fairly inexpensive at ~1.5x book value. Large Canadian banks have all done well, but this one has lagged. Most international of Canadian banks.
Strong capital base. Dividends should continue to increase over time. Very strong yield of 4.54%.
The only one he still owns (plus a bit of TD). He'll get into banks again when prices are better.
When banks hit 12x PE, that means ROE is 8%. If the problems of GSY spread up the affluence chain, banks will have problems. Housing market is sloppy. Our economy is being bailed out by gold and oil prices. Yield is 4+%.
You probably don't want to add capital to a name that's moved significantly. Perhaps trim. The time to buy was when it was facing the uncertainty of a new CEO.
Canadian banks will have credit issues if CUSMA vaporizes. But in general, good franchises. Instead, look outside Canada; JPM is one to consider.
Transition is slow-going. Market didn't like its buying a stake in KEY. Question is: where are they going strategically? Meanwhile, you have cost-cutting, capital markets, and share buybacks. Money has flowed to the TSX this year driving banks higher, but nothing has fundamentally changed with this name.
If you're overweight, you could trim. No calamity on the horizon. He'd just want to see some heat come out of the market before purchasing.
The weakest bank stocks in December tend to be Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) and Royal (RY-T). The others can actually do fairly well in December. You tend to see gains 70% of the time. In this bank, we are starting to see higher highs and higher lows. The banks remain quite strong all the way through to April. If this can hold this short-term low, then by all means, take advantage.