BlackBerry (BB.TO)

The problem with RIM is that it is an execution story and she doesn’t see this working out to their favour. She doesn’t know how good the Blackberry 10 will be. They have pockets of strength but she doesn’t see it as an investment.

It is in the early stage of a flag configuration. It is consolidating the rally of the last couple of days. If you break below Friday’s low you break the structure. If you are a trader take half the money off the table and if it falls you can buy it back. If it gets back below $11.21 it could break down. Stop it under $11.

First good news all year. It went above the EBV -3 level which tells you there is finally a connection between the balance sheet and the market, even though he has a 76% downside on his model price. 3 or 4 analysts are now adjusting their earnings estimates. They are always late in this company at a transition point. The company will wait around at this level this year until earnings are done with in Mid-December. This is the first positive about this one this year.

Wouldn’t own this right now. To really be comfortable with the stock you have to have some feel to where the technological cycle is. Not that many people do.

If can go up to $15 or $20. If BB10 is as good as people say it is then it could go up. Have to make sure AAPL does not get a stranglehold on enterprise market. Was correct to come out Jan/Feb rather than now and have it not work in some way.

(Market Call Minute) There is too much legacy issue. It is a declining story.

Demo today on BNN was very cool. This is their last chance, of course. A lot of analysts are giving it good ratings. He would rather wait until it gets to $12 to buy it when BB10 is released. Prefers AAPL otherwise.

(Market Call Minute) If there is going to be a time to buy it will be into the launch into BB10, but he questions if it will be successful.

Still has it on his screen. Best case is that BB10 is successful. There is the value of the subscribers out there and the patents. Thinks tax loss selling is going on now. But most shareholders are willing to hold it.

About 50% of users he asks say they won’t go with another RIM phone. Others prefer the keyboard and will stay with it. Thinks Samsung will win if RIM comes out with a screened only unit. No evidence that the major low is in.

(Market Call Minute) Would rather buy at $11 than here and see what happens. Waiting for BB11 to come out.

Doing some testing now on their BB 10 operating system with some carriers. He would consider this as a bet rather than an investment so he is not touching this. It might be a reasonable short-term bet on their new operating system.

Test they are doing is in the labs of all the carriers (60-90 days). It is positive in that it is getting closer and closer. The last quarter impressed him because of increased subscribers and cash. The refresh cycle will surprise people to the upside. Stock price is reflecting ultimately going out of business. In the end the release date does not matter. In the end is it a device that will bring back the customers. What you get with BB10 is multitasking.

Last year was a huge down year for them. They were strong yesterday and today which was probably because they announced they were now testing the new Blackberry 10. In his estimate, this is probably the last chance for the company to turn around on an operational basis. If Blackberry 10 does not have a good reception come the 1^st quarter next year, the company will have no choice but to be sold. (He owns a little bit.)

New operating system is due out in the 1^st quarter. They have a lot of problems and he feels they are in a death spiral. Not sure he would put any money to work here.