BlackBerry (BB.TO)

This company is really doing what they said they were going to do. The problem is that perception is really against them. Their last quarterly reports have been beating expectations. Market is questioning whether they can continue to execute. From what he sees so far, John Chen is doing an excellent job. Expects the numbers will move into the green fairly soon and the stock will probably move higher.

Likes John Chen. He looks at management. Chen has a good track record and has the ability to turn the company around. Balance sheet is still not so bad. Fairfax is still behind them. It will turn around. It is just a question of time.

John Chen is a very good businessman and very clear thinker and probably exactly the right person for this company when they needed it. This is never going to be the BlackBerry that it was. The business it is in is never going to see the kind of growth profile you get when you get a hot handset trend. Chen has a good idea in his security thinking and he wouldn't bet against this. Risk profile is still too high for him.

Rumours of their demise have clearly been exaggerated. New management has caused a bit of resurgence in the stock. Technically it has broken through a level that it had been bumping its head against.

Chart shows it is forming a huge symmetrical triangle, and usually that is followed by a breakout, either up or down. He expects it will be up rather than down, so Shorting this would be a bad idea. Just made a new 52-week high. His rule is that the 1st 52-week high will not be the last one. He expects there will be more.

This had a long-term downtrend from 2010. It still officially is in a downtrend, but attempting to break out. Forming a bit of a descending triangle and there's very strong resistance at around $12.50. If this breaks through $12 on volume, and can stay there a few days, it will break the bigger picture downtrend and will have broken out of the triangle. To him that would target the old high of $17 and, further on, it could even get into the $20 area. Don't buy it unless it breaks the $12.50 level and stays there for several days.

He is not buying into the turnaround story. Found that the Passport was too big for his hand, and he can't see this taking off. John Cheng has done a great job. He just can't see this company being a long-term standalone vehicle.

Their share of the smart phone market is now under 1%. They have a new device out – passport. Does not think they can compete against Samsung or Apple in the consumer market and they are now getting buried in the business market. The patents are getting less valuable and the cash is dwindling so he does not know why you would buy it.

Don’t make it a big part of your portfolio. He is a large shareholder and he also owns the debt. He is confident in the turnaround and that they will leverage the assets. They should turn a profit next year.

Starting to see a real turnaround. Today is their big day with the rollout of their new Passport. Likes the company from both a fundamental standpoint, where the numbers are improving, as well as from a technical standpoint, looking at the supply/demand where demand is in control of that picture. They may never be at the stage they were before, but they can certainly grow their business from here. As they reinvent themselves and take that in new directions, they’ll really start to gain market share back.

They can certainly compete in the business side. They have a strong franchise and some good leverage with people in that area. The issue is only if they can leverage their existing franchise.

This is a non-story. It is speculative. He is attracted to turn-arounds, but not like this. Prefers AAPL-O.

Loves this company. Bought this when it came down to the $7 range. Doesn’t have a model price. They will be launching a new phone this fall and he thinks security will be one of the main issues going forward.

This company has gone through a significant change in their business. They are really trying to make money on their enterprise system. He thinks there is a fair bit of risk in the business so he would prefer others.

The key in this case is the horse and the jockey. He likes John Cheng, who has a good track record. This is going to be a long haul. There are very few companies that have more noise about them. His Initial Sell Target price is close to $18. If they start to really turn around, he can see the company going far further than $18. They still have lots of difficulties. Management have announced the end of layoffs and are now looking at potentially hiring. That is a major curve in the cycle for him, so he is happy to hold it. When a company like this turns, it can turn fast and can really rocket.