Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) (ATD.B.TO)

WEAK BUY

Valuations were too high, so he avoided it for a while, but now the stock has checked back to a reasonable valuation. They grow by acquisition which they've done very well. Their weakness is that it's a low-margin business, and the rising price of gas will impact their earnings. That said, he still sees growth ahead and likes the current valuation.

BUY

Sell Walmart and buy Couche-Tard? Yes. ATD was a big holding of his. ATD is down 20% recently, perhaps to rotate to energy, but there were worries of U.S. fuel margin pressure, but he expects a turnaround here with this as a growth-driver for ATD. They've done a great job absorbing acquisitions (which they're known for) and making them accretive, but internal initiatives like offering organic food are also driving them forward. Valuation has fallen to 13x. He loves it and will go back into this when he has space for it.

BUY

It's been a wild ride. He's follows it closely. It's a well-run consolidator. They had a horrible rare last quarter, missing on fuel margins, but he expects a better quarter. It's a high-quality stock. E-vehicles are another fear, but he thinks those are years away. He expects a rebound in ATB and sees this is an opprtunity.

TOP PICK

It has been beaten up after the last earnings came out. It is an interesting company. It buys companies, consolidates them and grows off the consolidation. The hiccup in the fall adds to this company. Norway is their laboratory. Half of the cars are electric. This is their testing ground. They are great controllers of cost. (Analysts’ target: $74.08).

WATCH

This is seriously on his watch list. The latest quarterly earnings surprised analysts due to lower fuel profits. At 11 times next year earnings, this is the cheapest it has been for a long time.

DON'T BUY

Great company. But money is leaking out of these companies into economically sensitive stocks that are performing better, so look elsewehre. Doesn't see an entry point now.

DON'T BUY

It still maintains a growth multiple to it. It has been based on a roll-up strategy, which they were very good at. These strategies always seem to come to an end at some point. He would not look to buy it at this point. At 15% cheaper he would consider it.

DON'T BUY

It's come off due to some weakness in U.S. operations. They are a good acquirer of businesses--they grow buy acquiring. She's not looking at it now, and sees better opportunity elsewhere.

TOP PICK

They are out of favour but are a core holding of his. They are the second largest convenience store operator in the world. They missed the mark with their recent results and it was solely gas margins in the States. He would rather have oil prices going down, but this stock is cheap. (Analysts’ target: $74.08).

HOLD

Not a small cap company today. Their last quarterly earnings got squeezed hard. He likes the management team and continues to hold it. He hopes management will be able to prove themselves over the next couple of quarters.

TOP PICK

They run 10,000 convenience stores in North America and another 2800 in Europe. They price sharply on fuel to draw shoppers into stores for other high margin products. The extra kicker is that they just closed on a $5.2 billion acquisition last year and other that adds 500 more gas stations. The recent price pullback makes it a great entry. Yield 0.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $74.08 )

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The has looked at this company many times but never bought it. It is well managed but it is operating in a very mature industry so there is not much room for organic growth. Gas margins can be quite volatile. There is a lot of potential to grow sales in convenience stores but in his view, the company is not growing fast enough to justify its multiple.

WATCH

He says the market was disappointed with recent earnings. This came from weaker gasoline margins in Europe and Arizona. It could be a sale for them at the end of the month, because of the 25% negative surprise on the earnings. Yield %.

COMMENT

They've suffered from gas margins in the last quarter and they've been flat for quite a while. They've made big acquisitions in Europe and the U.S. Need gas sales to keep the company going. Well-managed and well do well in the long term. Electric vehicles could take away from future earnings though.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Couche-Tard is a strong Canadian business that has executed their strategy of consolidating the convenience store exit globally, with a lot of discipline. This quarter, they had weakness in their gasoline margins and wage pressures in the U.S. There were also one-time issues, such as storms and the cost of a large new acquisition. (The stock dropped 6.75% on the day of this interview.) He has liked this company for a long time and thinks it is worth buying at the right time.

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