
Well positioned to benefit from the acquisitions it has made in the US in the past years. It is benefiting from the U.S. tax cuts, can grow in the US and can potentially grow in Europe and Asia. 65% of their business is in the U.S. and 20% is in Europe. They own Circle K and Macs and several other brands. They are also taking costs out of their acquisitions well. You are paying an inexpensive multiple (15x earnings) for a company that has the opportunity to grow that fast. (Analysts’ price target is 77.08$)
(A Top Pick Feb. 27/17, Up 5%). 70% of their revenue comes from U.S. operations. One criticism is they're not capturing the electric vehicle market, and need to offer more charging stations. Competition in convenience stores, like Dollarama will be offering food. So many accolades have made this a boring now with outflows from this stock, but the love will come back. Too much money is chasing tech, Dollarama, Canada Goose, energy and banks, and investors will circle back to this perennial name.
One of the largest convenience store operators globally. Has been going nowhere for the better part of 2 years. It had a nice run up after the 2008 recession. There are still some big plays available in their space. However competition is coming from Amazon (AMZN-Q) which gives him some concern. On the upside, he wonders of some of the companies this company has been targeting may capitulate rather than being targets of Amazon. Even though this is large, it is an innovator. Recently announced some really interesting features of their Norway convenience stores, specifically electric cars. How does a convenience store react to cars not needing gasoline anymore? A tremendously run company. He’d like to see them break through $67, and thinks it can run into the $70s-$80s once overhead resistance is cleared.
With their recent acquisition, they have close to 7,700 gas bars/convenience stores in North America. Also has a footprint in Europe. It’s still growing its EBITDA at close to 18% a year. It is incredible the amount of synergies they are taking out of these businesses. Dividend yield of 0.6%. (Analysts' price target is $76.)
A good time to buy? Likes it. One of those Canadian companies that are a global champion. They operate convenience stores better than anyone else in the world almost. Very good at allocating capital. They executed on their growth through acquisition strategies very efficiently. Just received regulatory approval on their acquisition of Holiday. They should be able to generate additional synergies that should translate into more cash flow and earnings. Margin on oil price is a driver for their profitability. Very good merchandiser, being able to upsell and driving incremental same store sales growth. Sees possibility to continue to grow earnings and potential margin expansion. Trading around 16.5X earnings today versus the low 20s they peaked out in the past. Not expensive relative to its own history. Very good historical business in Canada and a global champion. (Analysts’ price target is $79.)
From a seasonal perspective, it’s very difficult to do an analysis on a stock like this that had this rapid growth. It has consolidated in the last 2 years, before that in 2015 we saw a ramp up that was fantastic, but right now we’re at the top of the range and it looks like we might be turning down at this point. He would actually be waiting on this one and wait for a pull back, perhaps at level of about $50. That’s a long way down, but if it does get there that would be a good entry point.
(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 4%) It has been underwhelming over the last 10 months. It is an illustration of why you want to be patient and diversified. It is a building block and serves a purpose. What has held it back is a miss-guided belief that electric cars will kill the internal combustion engine, which he does not accept. The decline is based on a decline in fuel traffic which in turn means a decline in convenience store sales. He continues to like this one.
The level of consolidation is worrisome. Support is about $60 and it is pushing that now. If it stays he would hold it based on the consolidation breaking out. He would only be worried if the recent move down does not come back up into the trading range. If not, it would indicate a new trading range. It is a wait and see. Metro is selling their ATD.B-T holding and this could be putting pressure on it.
He thinks this company is benefiting from grinding along with growth in every quarter. Over the last year, it has done better than 50% of the stocks – in the middle of the pack and not improving. You need to trade up into something that is working. You should move on.