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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Numbers are starting to come in on the fertilizer side and the demand is up. Expect the stock will continue to run from here.
BUY
Fantastic results. Fertilizer stocks tend to do well from August until the end o the year. If you look back, they haven’t done well because farmers were cutting back only to deplete soil and now they have to buy it. Great formation taking place on the chart. A breakout is going to take place.
BUY
Fertilizer group looks pretty cheap and should move up. Prefers this over Potash (POT-T), which is just one product. This one also has nitrogen and ammonia plus retail. Did well this quarter. $75-$80 is a good 1-year target.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick July 13/09. Up 43.73%.) Lighten up on this a little bit as he thinks fertilizer prices will soften up in the last half of the year.
BUY
Likes fertilizer space. Prices have stabilized. China is now a net importer of corn. If this is a trend, it is a very exciting thing for fertilizer – changing Asian diets. Thinks they have bottomed out.
BUY
The agriculture sector has good signs and he likes it. It was too far below the 200-day moving average, then was to far above it and is now to far below but is rallying up.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick July 23/09. Up 27.45%.) Still a buy.
WAIT
Seasonality of agriculture stocks is from end of June to end of the year. Chart shows it is having difficulty so be cautious. Expect you have an opportunity before the end of this month.
COMMENT
Seasonal element but thinks that will be overwhelmed by both market and yearly cycle. The one stock to buy in the fertilizer area because it is part potash, phosphate and ammonia. Also has a retail component to it. Expect the real big prices are going to be pushed to 2011.
STRONG BUY
Sold off in the last month or so along with the rest of the market. Trades at a very reasonable multiple. Well diversified among the 3 major fertilizer products along with its wholesale and retail operations. Great entry point.
DON'T BUY
Anything in the agriculture space is having difficulty right now. Pricing power just doesn't appear to be there. Grain prices are kind of sloppy. Technically the names are not behaving well.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Likes the agriculture space and feels the fertilizer space will recover. Try to get at $50. (See Top Picks.)
HOLD
1 and 5 year charts look awful, however, there are short-term disruptions agriculture. Longer term, it is a good buy.
COMMENT
Risk trade on fertilizer stocks has come off lately but likes the story long-term. A matter of supply/demand and there's too much supply right now. Good, long-term value.
SELL
The up trend has been broken. It is a sell. Until it gets above $60 he would avoid it at all costs.
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