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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Has had a run up over the last couple of years. High quality company. Has retain component that stabilizes earnings stream. Likes it because it has stable earnings. It is now just slightly too expensive. IT looks like there will be a lot o grain next year and AGU will pull off. He wants to buy it cheaper.
BUY
Fertilizer stocks are correlated to the price of corn and beans. This is an excellent entry point. Long-term it looks good and for a short-term trade.
COMMENT
Feels that commodities are going to tend to do well in the long-term. Expecting commodity inflation. On a price to book value, this is a lot cheaper than Potash (POT-T).
HOLD
Thinks highly of the company and the business mix. Resource stocks are high beta stocks and the data on this one is around 1.4. This means that on days where there is a lot of fear, this one is going to be off substantially. Over the medium and long-term, agriculture will still be very important.
BUY
Probably a good entry point for fertilizer stocks. Prefers Mosaic (MOS-N) but this company is a good solid one. Not a bad entry point.
BUY
Attraction is that its main product is nitrogen which is used in the production of corn and demand will continue to grow in emerging markets.
BUY
Likes it. Long-term fundamentals are good. Longer term it is very positive. Likes their mix.
BUY
Historically the best time to own is from the end of June through to end of the year. Didn't work out this year. Signs of bottoming in the last week or so and a good chance it will go back to its historic seasonal trend. Real sweet spot is actually from early Oct through until Dec. Watch DJ-UBS Grains (JJG-N). If grain prices go higher, it means farmers will have more money to buy fertilizers.
TOP PICK
Specializes in nitrogen fertilizer, which is terribly important for corn crops. Becoming a world leader in wholesale/retail in all sorts of goods.
BUY
Good entry point for a long-term hold. Brilliant company, both in production of nitrates/potash and its great retail chain across the US.
BUY
Because of global economic fears, a lot of the material stocks across the different commodities, have dropped. This company is part of that. He expects good growth from their various divisions. Great entry point.
BUY
Corn and Wheat prices had been quite strong. Fertilizer companies make a lot of sense. He would buy the stock. They beat the latest estimates. Longer term he thinks agriculture is a good place to be. He thinks there will be a forth quarter rally. He owns CF industries, AGU is more diversified. It is one of the few industries he is focused in.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
This represents decent value. Not cheap but reasonable valuation. Lots of free cash value. In this environment, he would like to buy it on a big down day. Longer-term there could be a supply issue.
DON'T BUY
Giving him mixed signals on what is going to happen next. It is nervous trading. He is nervous that this stock may give him some downside.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Has been looking at it a bit lately. In all three areas of the fertilizer market that are important. Agriculture demand going forward will go up. Multiples are going to more compelling levels. Long-term capital gain potential. It is approaching levels where he would consider buying it. Around $75 it is compelling.
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