Agrium (AGU.TO)

(A Top Pick August 12/12. Up 0.04%.) The market is expanding for this company longer-term. The global story of wealth increasing in many nations and people eating better and needing better food plays into their hands.

(Market Call Minute.) Corn price probably goes a lot lower which will give you a better opportunity.

Sold at higher levels. Buy under $90. World wide exposure, north and south America. Insecticides, potash and nitrogens.

(Market Call Minute) Doesn’t like the sector, grains are under pressure, fertilizer use is a little weak.

Their retail division is kind of saving them because they are not as concentrated as something like Potash (POT-T). Have great assets and are helped because of their diversification of the retail side. He would still stay away because there are probably global players that are going to invest out of these kinds of stories. Trading at 12X earnings so it is not incredibly cheap.

He would not stick his toe into the water on this one and probably wouldn’t for quite some time. Generally you want to own a commodity when a commodity is going up or is staying at a high level for an extended period of time.

Soft pricing here is transitory as this is really about weather. Very low valuation at about 9.3X PE with possibly a lot better earnings in the back half of 2013. Farm incomes are exceptionally strong. Has a very nice buy-back. Very low payout ratio of about 21% so could easily double that and still be lower. Could easily double their dividend from here.

Has had a 3.7% discount in the last year but has a prospect for 23% upside. Long-term it is a solid play. Well diversified among all the nutrients.

Prefers over POT-T. Commodity prices in fertilizer stocks have been pulling back. Long term fertilizer outlook is very good. You get nitrogen fertilizers and the retail business with this one. He is taking a close look at it.

(A Top Pick July 24/12. Down 1.37%.) Still likes this.

36% upside to model price. Will trade up to $108.92. Word is getting out.

We are just getting in to the seasonality for fertilizer stocks, which runs from June 23 to January 11. Chart shows a downward trend from the beginning of the year followed by some consolidation. Bouncing around a little bit of a trading range which is actually providing a little bit of a positive boost. If it dropped below its support level of around $89, that would be a concern.

This whole group seems to be in the holding pattern. He is still trying to figure out what the landscape is following the unusual weather patterns North America has been experiencing. Prices have softened a little bit, but probably not a bad entry point. Don’t look for anything real dramatic in the short term. Nice dividend.

He would wait for the company to soften even more from here. We might see less ethanol being used and this would be negative for corn and fertilizer companies.

(Top Pick Jun 28’12, Up 0.16%)