Agrium (AGU.TO)

Period of seasonal strength runs from the latter part of summer through to the end of the year. Technically, the stock is in a bit of the range, $92 on the upside and $81-$83 is the downside. You want to see a breakout. Short-term chart shows a huge run up from Oct 28, followed by a brief period of consolidation which usually resolves to the upside. Given that we have resistance at the 200 day, if it breaks above that you’re like to see a significant push higher. He uses the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO-N).

Sees their free cash flow increasing by 50% now through 2015. This is mostly achieved through lower CapX. Most of the jump happens in 2015.

This is amongst the best run of the AG. Stocks. These stocks trade off of potash and corn prices. Ability to raise dividend this year is strong. A good entry point at $95 right now. He is predicting volatility in corn prices due to concerns about what we put in our gas tanks.

Grain prices, corn and wheat, are extremely weak. Seasonably, this is probably not the time to be buying fertilizer stocks coming out of the growing season. You would probably be better buying it heading into winter and the spring. Sector is behaving very poorly relative to the rest of the market.

This didn’t get hurt all that bad during the Potash (POT-T) situation. Has gone up to $90 today, but because the whole market has gone up. Has a retail position that the other fertilizers do not have. We are coming into a seasonally good time for fertilizers.

Has a broad range of products. Under $90 is a good Buy. This is a long-term investment. Food and fertilizer have to be big growth areas.

Not high risk. They have gone through some tough times recently. Long term it will be great. Demographics will work great for you. There is uncertainty with potash pricing around the world.

The long term thesis about providing fertilizer to developing nations is still intact. He is ignoring Russia. Prices of fertilizer slipping back will cause a big increase in demand in China and India. Recently increased dividend. Thinks it is a reasonably safe stock. He would not by here with the mess going on but would watch them.

Thinks the worst is over for fertilizer stocks. Chart shows a long-term uptrend going back to 2008. He would be interested in acquiring at this time, along with the potash groups.

There is a risk with what is happening in Russian with the potash space. Analysts are not sure where prices will be a year from now. In the next 20 years there will be another 20 billion on the planet so owning stocks like this when they have corrected makes a lot of sense. Nibble at it now.

14% Potash – not that big of a deal. Viterra purchase will help them so they have retail. Gave profit warning and dividend increase at same time recently.

He is quite positive on the fertilizer producers. This has been the more expensive of the two. The dust has settled after the attempted takeover. The dividend increase has caught his eye. He has seen a big ramp on the dividend so is looking to accumulate. Owns POT-T but is looking seriously at this one too.

(Market Call Minute) Lots of talks about potash monopoly. Beaten up.

Likes the diversification. Only 10% exposed top potash. Exposed to phosphate and nitrogen as well. Growing retail position out west, increasing retail presence in US, Australia and out west. Higher Nat Gas price is not materializing. They will keep very good margins.

Fertilizer stocks have been hit fairly severely. He likes that it is diversified within the fertilizer sector. They are present in all 3 of the major fertilizer groups, nitrogen, phosphate and potash. Have the retail distribution side for fertilizer related products. Very well run company. Very good entry point. Yield of 2.37%.