Agrium (AGU.TO)

You need all the stars to be aligned to own this. He benefited from the Janna Partners coming into this name and rode it up to $110. Natural gas prices have been slowly creeping up, which is a big input cost for them. If natural gas prices are going to stay up in the $4 range for a while, this will start to hurt margins. Still likes the company for the wholesale and retail.

A tug-of-war where Janna is trying to split the company in order to find value. This will take some time.

Janna got shot down and didn’t get any board members but they did force the company to focus on their retail operations and to disclose a lot more about their strategies. If Janna starts to sell their 7.5% it could be an overhang on the stock. It is now at a price where she would buy it for new clients. Long-term fundamentals are quite positive.

Broke out to new highs later last year and is coming back to a range of support. Thinks we don’t go down below this support on a pullback. It is 10% lower. Would look to pick it up around upper $80s or $90. Some short term risk.

Their business with JANNA has been a real dogfight. He is seeing reports that a lot of existing shareholders are not buying the JANNA situation. Doesn’t see the stock going anywhere whether JANNA wins or loses and thinks the stock will pull back.

Thinks there is upside on this. Have to be a little careful. Stock is fundamentally sound but is flirting with its uptrend and its 200 day moving average. Would like to see how that settles out in the next few days, particularly with the Janna stuff coming up on April 9.

Pulled back lately because of Janna and all the controversy about board members, etc. There is probably a weak quarter coming and then the outlook for the next couple of years is pretty good. Expecting it to get back to the $115 level.

Had a great ride and was a stand-out in the sector so it is natural to expect a correction. There is big support under $100 and if that breaks it will go back to 52 week lows. Be cautious on this one and don’t step up to the plate. He is hearing negative things on the potash side (Fundamentals and supply/demand things).

(A Top Pick March 22/12. Up 19.5%.) Still likes. Has a target of $120 and if it reaches this, he would be considering lightening up.

This is a sector that he favours. This one still may have legs. It trends very nicely. When the trend line gets broken, it will rebound back to the trend line and that is the point when you would Sell. (See Top Picks.)

Agriculture prices have been weak, which has been a negative for the group. This one had been one of the better performers and today’s downgrade was more on valuation. This company is performing better than the rest in agriculture but he thinks there are better sectors right now.

Likes that the have both the wholesale and retail sides. Trading below 10X next year’s earnings and thinks there is good upside. Relatively cheap compared to their history. He has been turning more towards Potash (POT-T) and their improvements.

(A Top Pick Feb 29/12. Up 24.57%.) His target remains at $120.

This is an important asset and it’s going to continue. We have to eat so the earnings will continue. The drought conditions that we had last year might continue. Also, food prices are going higher and this company will benefit.

Prefers POT as their earnings and visibility are more predictable than this one.