Apple Inc (AAPL)

Monday they host a Worldwide Developer's Conference and some have bid on the stock today based on that, up 1.64%. However, Trump wants Apple to build iPhones in the US, which is a serious problem and make Apple hard to own. However, maybe Apple can catch a break now that Elon Musk is drawing so much fire.

Doesn't mind nibbling here around $200. Lots of moving parts, and no one knows exactly how they'll play out. It is a laggard. Support is around $190-200. If you buy here, and it goes 5-10% lower, he'd look to exit. But if it pushes higher, and you're up 10%, he doesn't mind adding more.

Sentiment is so poor on the stock right now. But he's looking forward. Excited by unleashing AI into its products, when we'll have agents like Siri doing a lot of things for us. Closed system with 1.1B users, and it'll sell them more products and services over time. One of the best businesses in the world, generates lots of FCF. Valuation is as attractive as it's been in a long time. Yield is 0.51%.

Supply chains and labour costs. Moving from China to India will still not appease the president. It would take years, not months. iPhone prices would increase substantially. More like a consumer stock, and not introducing anything new to the market. Money from services starting to ebb, margins declining. Fallen 30% from highs last year.

Not a Mag 7 that's in favour right now.

They do gross margins very well, but revenues are in the single digits at best while iPhone sales are down YOY. And it trades at 28x. There are better Mag 7 stocks.

This is thuggish behaviour with Trump telling Apple, "Pay up." And now the negotiation comes. Tim Cook will have to pay it, whether through lower gross margins for example. Remember that Trump needs to pay for the tax cuts he just passed. The world knows now that the U.S. won't cut spending, and Trump needs to find money--squeezing everybody he can squeeze. Expectations needs to decline for Apple. In recent years, Apple's growth has slowed and their AI hasn't come out as hoped (and they may not get AI right), but as the US market goes, so will Apple. That said, the difference is Apple's services which boasts wide margins, and Apple has a history of catching up the latest innovations. When money flows into markets, it flows into Apple.

We have to continue to expect this volatility for 3 years, and at least into the summer. You can play this volatility by buying the dips and selling calls. Hold Apple. It won't skyrocket in the next few days. He's more worried about chatGPT's next generation building hardware that surpasses the iPhone. 

Those holding it in a taxable account don't want to sell Apple now, so will hold. And no, Apple will not trade in line with the S&P (it's been underperforming the market).

The company is treading water, hasn't done much in the recent versions of the Apple phone. However, their services division is doing well; services are stickier with higher margins, and make up 28% of Apple's total revenues. The phone is the core, though, and will be raising prices. People are willing to pay a lot for these phones. Last fall, they launched Apple Intelligence, their AI, but hasn't had an impacted, but that's not unusual for Apple--their launches take time to catch on. AI will be an opportunity for Apple down the road. Apple is a core holding of his.

Has incredible gross margins. They just reported a fine quarter, but tariffs in China didn't help. The street perceives that as the last great quarter, so shares fell. Apple is trying to move production from China to India but who know how long it will take. Services revenue disappointed and a monopoly lawsuit doesn't help.

The consumer-related companies are taking it on the chin. In transition -- can they produce in the US or not? From  what he understands, moving manufacturing to the States would increase the cost of products dramatically. Getting crushed in China from competition. Tougher to change course.

AMZN's retail side is taking a bit of a hit. Cloud business is great. Imports all its goods, and can more easily switch to importing from countries other than China. He's not buying much of anything now, but if he were, he'd probably pick this one.

The tariff focus on China and Apple already shifting their supply chain out of China (to India) is the most interesting in this week's tech earnings.

They report Thursday. Some will say these will be Apple's last good numbers before tariffs, but he isn't concerned. He is confident they can work their way out of any problem involving China, but it will take time and money. He expects the CEO to announce plan that involves India.

If the tariff situation simmers down (and it should come the summer), the Mag 7 name that will be the big beneficiary will be AAPL.

Markets are down today from Trump hectoring Jay Powell badly. If this leads to a constitutional crisis, you will need some cash. He always believed that the President can't fire the Fed Chair. This talk and tariffs have done enormous damage to stocks. Losses could worsen if Trump keeps trashing Powell without achieving a good tariff deal. Washington is incredibly biased against Nvidia and Apple, two excellent companies. Trump is more interested in cutting off China than advancing America's interests. This makes NVDA a hard stock to own, though not as bad as Apple. Apple makes the best consumer products on Earth, and they will eventually get AI right. But Apple makes a lot of products in China. The market could get worse, but at some point the pain will get so bad that Trump will back its most punitive measures. There has to be some sanity here. A strong Apple with business in China is in America's interest, while Nvidia is worth supporting. It doesn't have to be this way!