Apple IncAAPLPARTIAL SELLApr 21, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Is one of the best-run companies ever with great margins and great growth. A recent knock is that they lack innovation. Their googles were a flop and are absent in AI--though maybe they're waiting for the dust to settle before they buy an AI company. Maybe they're positioning with the next era of Apple as they transition to a new CEO.
Really good opportunity on the AI front. Hasn't missed the boat; by its history, lets other companies do the heavy lifting and then steps in when things are more mature. Then a decade later they own the sector.
Talk of an AI phone. Changes in management (interesting tell that CEO has a hardware engineering background). Tremendous resources. Generates an unbelievable amount of cash. Yield is 0.36%.
Credit them for not getting into the AI arm race and spending a gazillion dollars unlike at least four peers. Meanwhile, they announced enough cash flow to announce another $100 billion share buyback and increasing their dividend. Also, services revenue came in at a record high and 16% growth, their profit generator going forward. iPhone sales have been surprisingly steady recently. The valuation is high, but can grow into that valuation, say they go into a new hardware phase under the new CEO.
Had a very good quarter. Chinese sales are rebounding, up 28%, services hit a new record, gross margins at 49.3% and a $100 billion share buyback. iPhone sales are a little light, but Apple is exciting. He holds a full position. True, it's valuation is too high, but deserves that premium. Give credit that they reduced capex during this period of huge AI spending.
It has enormous free cash flow and has 20% of the world's smart phone market. It is not a hyper-scaler name so does not have hundreds of millions in capital expenditures like the other hyper-scalers. The service part of its business is adding growth with an overall earnings growth rate of 12 to 15% along with solid margins. AI is embedded in partnerships with different companies. It is at its 200 day moving average so maybe it is time to add.
Markets are down today from Trump hectoring Jay Powell badly. If this leads to a constitutional crisis, you will need some cash. He always believed that the President can't fire the Fed Chair. This talk and tariffs have done enormous damage to stocks. Losses could worsen if Trump keeps trashing Powell without achieving a good tariff deal. Washington is incredibly biased against Nvidia and Apple, two excellent companies. Trump is more interested in cutting off China than advancing America's interests. This makes NVDA a hard stock to own, though not as bad as Apple. Apple makes the best consumer products on Earth, and they will eventually get AI right. But Apple makes a lot of products in China. The market could get worse, but at some point the pain will get so bad that Trump will back its most punitive measures. There has to be some sanity here. A strong Apple with business in China is in America's interest, while Nvidia is worth supporting. It doesn't have to be this way!