Stockchase Opinions

Jim Lebenthal Apple Inc AAPL-Q BUY May 23, 2025

Trump threatens if with 25% unless phones are built in the U.S., considered unfeasible by everyone

This is thuggish behaviour with Trump telling Apple, "Pay up." And now the negotiation comes. Tim Cook will have to pay it, whether through lower gross margins for example. Remember that Trump needs to pay for the tax cuts he just passed. The world knows now that the U.S. won't cut spending, and Trump needs to find money--squeezing everybody he can squeeze. Expectations needs to decline for Apple. In recent years, Apple's growth has slowed and their AI hasn't come out as hoped (and they may not get AI right), but as the US market goes, so will Apple. That said, the difference is Apple's services which boasts wide margins, and Apple has a history of catching up the latest innovations. When money flows into markets, it flows into Apple.

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WATCH

Is wavering about his call on this to own it, not trade it. Is expecting a non-exciting report and a slowdown in the growth in services revenue. Will they still receive $20 billion from Google to make Google Apple's default search engine, something a judge wants to end. Also, Epic is fighting Apple's policy to take a 30% cut from any transaction from any app downloaded from the Apple strore.

WEAK BUY

Now that tariffs are getting resolved, you could take a look at this name for potential growth going forward. iPhone brand will continue to do well. Expects it to fully catch up on its AI offering. Lots of cash on hand. Money spent on now-cancelled EVs can be diverted to R&D in AI. 

DON'T BUY

Is the only Mag 7 stock he doesn't own, because it is the only name with negative performance in 1-, 6- and 12-month time frames. He no longer owns it.

DON'T BUY

Half of their sales remain the iPhone, and people are changing that iPhone less often. They're struggling with VR. Also, they're not a cheap stock. Until the last quarter, revenue growth has been flat. They're lagging in AI, a huge question mark.

DON'T BUY

It's been moving up the last 5 days and has momentum. But the fundamentals remain flat--flat revenues and earnings. He prefers companies that have great fundamentals and are truly undervalued.

BUY
Just announced major investment in the U.S.

Recently sold it from his fund, but this morning bought it for himself because of positioning and momentum. You must buy this today. Revenue growth has flattened though, and Apple's weighting in the market is a problem because Apple is so large. A lot of people, on this news, will now buy this stock. Also, since early April, the stock has been resilient.

COMMENT

Tom Cook and Jensen Huang have to be diplomats now to deal with Trump and his tariffs, or they will have a China problem. Apple is trying to stay out of the ire of Trump. The street has been negative on Apple, asking what they're doing in AI, but the street hasn't changed its price targets.

HOLD
Investing more money in the US.

Of all the Mag 7's, this one has to buy parts and assemble phones. iPhone improvements have been fewer and fewer over time. Behind on AI. Will remain a great company, just got overvalued. Making moves to turn things around. Upside from here, but he wouldn't buy this over Mag 7 peers. See his Top Picks.

BUY
Concerns about AI strategy.

AI is an important piece, but not the only one for a company like this. Terrific cashflow, cash reserves. Strength in the balance sheet speaks for itself. Some of the results this week are conducive to higher returns going forward and, in turn, a higher stock price. Making investments in US, so US government no longer looking to punish them.

Has broken above 200-day MA today, which is one positive technical signal.

BUY

He bought even more because of the stock's momentum. Momentum is crucial in today's market. Plus, Apple has such a dominant, huge market cap--portfolio managers underweighted this earlier this year, but are not rebuilding positions in Apple quickly.