Apple Inc (AAPL)

Sold his holdings recently at about $100. Over the last little while, has realized that iPhone sales growth is starting to wane a little. Representing 2/3 of the revenues, he believes that is a bit of an issue. Valuation wise it is still very cheap, trading at around 10 or 11 times forward earnings. Has lots of cash on the books and paying a dividend, but thinks penetration in China is not as strong as people had hoped. Also, on the next iteration of iPhones, are people going to line up and is it going to be as successful as the previous ones.

(A Top Pick June 25/15. Down 23.08%.) He is concerned with the lack of new product and the lack of change with the iPhone. It is being reported that the new iPhone is not very different than the current iPhone. Also, feels penetration in China isn’t as strong as they had hoped.

At these levels, this is a value play. We have become accustomed to thinking of this as a mega-growth story, but a lot has changed over the last few years. They’ve grown considerably in terms of their market share. When you have grown market share as quickly as they have, you are not really a growth story the way that you used to be, you are much more of a mature business. Feels it has to go through a PR exercise of communicating that to the market. One good way of doing that would be by beefing up the dividend. Dividend yield of 2.36%.

A bit conflicted on this. It is a business that is finding its way into being a mature technology company. Most mature technology companies don’t get attributed with a very high multiple on a PE basis. They have oodles of cash on their balance sheet. Have started a program of paying a dividend and increasing it. However, what is lacking is their ability to innovate the way they once did. You’ll probably have to be patient with this. Prefers others.

Thinks the Bears have it wrong on this company. The company will survive even if they had to keep selling 50 million iPhones every quarter. What is being missed is the IOS, their software ecosystem where there are probably 1 billion users worldwide right now. They are generating applications and uses of recurring revenue.

Not an expensive stock. If you take out the cash, they trade at about 8X earnings. They could increase their dividend a lot more as they have a lot of cash to do that. The trouble is, people see it as a one product stock, the iPhone, and they don’t get a substantial amount of revenue from their service side. They have to move past their phone.

This has a history of innovation. He is watching this one very closely because they are coming in to a new product cycle, making it interesting.

This has struggled. Valuations are actually below their three-year averages. She still likes the company. The fact that they now offer a dividend yield, you are getting in at a nice low point. Sees it as a long-term, 1-2 years, holding. Their growth is less than what we have seen in prior years, but at this point you are looking at a good buy. They have the ability to turn around.

Hasn’t owned this, but since they have paid a dividend for 4 years, he can now own it. Had a tough year since it is down about 20%, but is still the most valuable company in the world. Stock is trading at 11X earnings with a 2.3% dividend yield. They’ve been great at incrementally improving their products.

The stock came down and tested its $92 level several times in the last month. However, it snapped right back and has been on a tear since then. Still feels this is great value. The problem is, we are in between product cycles. The next product is not out yet, but once it comes out, that will be the next catalyst to push it higher. This would be a Hold, but he would actually Buy if it got down to the low $90s again.

(A Top Pick July 15/15. Down 19.25%.) Got rid of most of his position by year-end. He was worried about the comparisons on the iPhone 6 going through. The company is having trouble growing right now, but the flipside is it is extremely inexpensive, and a much bigger percentage of the business is turning into a service business model, which has a recurring growth revenue stream.

The largest market cap stock in the world. Half of their revenues are the iPhone. Sales are slowing as people keep phones for longer. It looks cheap as a large part of the market cap is in cash.

The chart is starting to look a little rough. The 200 day moving average is falling and the stock is below the 200-day, 100-day and 50-day averages. The concern is how much further can the iPhone actually go. It represents two thirds of their revenues, which is very significant. If Apple does not succeed in China, it is going to spell a little bit of trouble for the company in terms of growth. The years of its extreme growth may be behind it. Right now he is looking for an exit point.

The market is questioning their future growth, but their balance sheet is very strong. They have lots of cash. They aren’t going to run into any financial difficulty for a long time. Product innovation seems to be waning a bit. They will be launching a new phone later this year, which may be a catalyst. Their phones are very expensive, so demand is not keying up as quickly. If the markets get shaky, this is a stock that is going to hold.

He is still an Apple Bull. Warren Buffet took a position this morning. You are starting to get these refresh cycles. You have to look at their ecosystem. These guys are monetizing IOS. There are only two operating systems in the space now and Apple owns IOS.