Apple Inc (AAPL)

Does not own shares in company. Hard to determine future of business. Technology moves quick, and can erode margins. Challenge is that business is very large - difficult to grow.  Hardware business difficult to grow market share in. 

Last week, they had momentum on news of incorporating AI. It looked great. But now shares have fallen below $170 and that's disappointing. It has negative momentum.

It's dead money at best, not exciting the market with any earnings report. He struggles to see what impact AI will have on Apple, but they need to answer this question.

Some analysts see the company as a single product, the iPhone, but she counters that there are 2 billion active iPhones. Siri could be a Trojan horse in terms of AI. It could be dead money for a couple quarters, but you can enter the mname. She expects Apple to release a great, new product in the near future.

China remains a major overhang as the country keeps pushing its domestic phones and not Apple.

An analyst signalled buy on weakness, but Apple remains a hard call for her. Thes tock is still expensive for its future growth, despite new innovations just announced in AI. Trades at 25x. Is a great company, but she won't add to it now.

He's now bullish after exiting last November. They just announced AI innovations, which is a tailwind, though he's not that concerned about China pushing its own smartphones. They have $100 billion of free cash flow--they print money and he likes that.

He just added shares. Apple is a rare gainer in this down market this week and today. He held a large position and began trimming at $185-189. Finally, yesterday, Apple announced a new innovation (will add AI to its iPhone 16 and Macs), something the market had been waiting for. Also, shares held the October low. He likes to buy stocks then they're inloved, like Apple, It has room to run this year. If spending in services in China rises, Apple will benefit. Buyers responded when shares hit $160-170.

It was important that this week Apple held support (October's low) of $168. But given the overall market this week, he won't invest in this or other stocks. He expects the market to fall 4-5% in the short term.

Has pulled back recently for good reason: more competition and less demand in China, less demand overall for iPhones and an unknown AI strategy. Also the PE got too high. But these are short-term concerns. The DOJ lawsuit adds more scrutiny, but that suit states that 98% of iPhone users re-purchase the phone, and young people want to buy those phones. A fine business. The bad news is priced in. He looks forward to June when Apple announces AI technology, and September for the iPhone launch. Lots of share buybacks and strong balance sheet. Loves it.

He never wanted them to do a car, tough business, often go bankrupt. He's not sure if robotic vacuums are going to reinvigorate the company. iPhone numbers are not good. But if start to see new AI-powered phones, could be a huge catalyst for a refresh. Good, long-term name. Will get through its issues.

Could fall to $160. Apple suffers many problems. The street sees no growth or down revenues; iPhone sales in China were -17% in February; an inventory bubble is developing in phones; trades at a high 25x earnings. Possible positives include the June developers' conference where we might hear of a new Apple product and maybe management will embrace Jensen Huang's vision of the VisionPro as a product for enterprise, not just consumers. If Nvidia does strike a deal with Apple, Apple could become a screaming buy. He still says own, don't trade, Apple--a short-term loser, but long-term winner.

The chart is trending sideways since last June so it's not a good time to enter this. Apple is not in trouble, though. The 200-day moving average is trending slightly sideways. Is concerned with Apple's dependence on iPhone sales (52% of overall revenues). Yes, they are moving into other devices and services. If one major country says it will stem the flow of iPhones, Apple will be in trouble. He expects them to announce AI sometime this year.