Apple Inc (AAPL)

The buyback buys them some time, a smart move. Think of the refresh cycle later this year. But AI needs to be more relevant to their installed base to support that refresh. It's a second-half, show-me story.

Doesn't think the earnings increase justifies the $20 increase a weak. Is now 29x fowrad PE now. The share buyback is massive. He wrote a covered call this morning because today's move was huge. Take profits at $190-200.

Recent "peaks and troughs" making it difficult to value. Not convinced stock is heading back to $200/share. Expecting a pullback in stock price. Movement out of tech sector, not good for business. 

Generally, getting into AAPL when it's low on the RSI index has proven to be good. Moved down with the general markets. We'll see earnings tomorrow. His target is still $220. Wait and see, as they work through short-term issues.

He just sold it. It's had negative momentum for the last year, namely declining revenue growth. The last 3 years saw 13% revenue growth, but last quarter was only 2% and the last 4 quarter was -70 basis points.

Whenever you think that their fundamentals are reaching an inflexion point, this company proves you wrong. True, they have a loyal customer base and resilient earnings. However, price and momentum have dramatically deteriorated. Near-term, their technicals don't look good, though long-term their fundamentals always win out and you can't bet against that. It depends on your outlook, short or long term? If you expect choppy markets, then Apple is defensive.

China remains their Achilles' heel, though the Tesla news today about China offers a halo effect. China doesn't want its citizens to buy Apple's phones.

It reports Thursday. There's been so much negativity around this, and they will report a disappointment, albeit the most-telegraphed disappointment in history. However, shares have been creeping high and away from his $160 downside target. Apple could highlight the performance of the world ex-US and China, a total market that's bigger than China, and stress their new tie-in with Nvidia.

He'd have to look at all the price targets, but one that's been beaten up is AAPL. But it probably won't spotlight its AI until June. Probably the most limited downside at this point, so you could add that one.

Analysts are looking forward to the developers' conference in June and the iPhone launch in September, but who knows if shares can take off without an AI tie-in? He suspects analysts are buying as estimates are cut, but interest will remain tepid until Apple shows that global growth is accelerating as much as it's shrinking in China, and that services revenues are holding. They make great products and now trades at a PE lower than what we're used to. They make a lot of money, but doesn't grow as fast as we'd like (or is not growing). If you think there won't be an iPhone refresh, then this is a sell down to $120, but he expects another refresh, but institutions won't let Apple fall that low. Buy a tranche at $160 then add even more if it falls down to $130. The longs will make a stand based on next year's earnings.

Does not own shares in company. Hard to determine future of business. Technology moves quick, and can erode margins. Challenge is that business is very large - difficult to grow.  Hardware business difficult to grow market share in. 

Last week, they had momentum on news of incorporating AI. It looked great. But now shares have fallen below $170 and that's disappointing. It has negative momentum.

It's dead money at best, not exciting the market with any earnings report. He struggles to see what impact AI will have on Apple, but they need to answer this question.

Some analysts see the company as a single product, the iPhone, but she counters that there are 2 billion active iPhones. Siri could be a Trojan horse in terms of AI. It could be dead money for a couple quarters, but you can enter the mname. She expects Apple to release a great, new product in the near future.