Apple Inc (AAPL)

Huge installed based with iPhones, growing internationally. No public AI offerings yet, but rumblings of partnerships. Huge upside potential in services business, with margins more attractive than manufacturing side. Happy to hold.

Shares have softened up. More than half the sales are still iPhone, but people are upgrading less often, revenue growth has slowed. Massive cashflow. Bright management. Valuation is too hefty for his liking, but hard to argue against the company. He prefers the software companies.

With all its R&D investment, sometime we may see the next killer device and the company return to growth again.

New development conference coming up could present investors with insights into new tech. Hard to tell whether the stock has fallen to bottom or not. Recent earnings better than expected. Next iPhone may have new items included which would be bullish for stock price. Pressure of Warren Buffett weight on the stock. Too early to tell direction of stock. 

They will remain an underperform and not a player in AI. Yes, they have a good installed base.

The buyback buys them some time, a smart move. Think of the refresh cycle later this year. But AI needs to be more relevant to their installed base to support that refresh. It's a second-half, show-me story.

Doesn't think the earnings increase justifies the $20 increase a weak. Is now 29x fowrad PE now. The share buyback is massive. He wrote a covered call this morning because today's move was huge. Take profits at $190-200.

Recent "peaks and troughs" making it difficult to value. Not convinced stock is heading back to $200/share. Expecting a pullback in stock price. Movement out of tech sector, not good for business. 

Generally, getting into AAPL when it's low on the RSI index has proven to be good. Moved down with the general markets. We'll see earnings tomorrow. His target is still $220. Wait and see, as they work through short-term issues.

He just sold it. It's had negative momentum for the last year, namely declining revenue growth. The last 3 years saw 13% revenue growth, but last quarter was only 2% and the last 4 quarter was -70 basis points.

Whenever you think that their fundamentals are reaching an inflexion point, this company proves you wrong. True, they have a loyal customer base and resilient earnings. However, price and momentum have dramatically deteriorated. Near-term, their technicals don't look good, though long-term their fundamentals always win out and you can't bet against that. It depends on your outlook, short or long term? If you expect choppy markets, then Apple is defensive.

China remains their Achilles' heel, though the Tesla news today about China offers a halo effect. China doesn't want its citizens to buy Apple's phones.

It reports Thursday. There's been so much negativity around this, and they will report a disappointment, albeit the most-telegraphed disappointment in history. However, shares have been creeping high and away from his $160 downside target. Apple could highlight the performance of the world ex-US and China, a total market that's bigger than China, and stress their new tie-in with Nvidia.

He'd have to look at all the price targets, but one that's been beaten up is AAPL. But it probably won't spotlight its AI until June. Probably the most limited downside at this point, so you could add that one.

Analysts are looking forward to the developers' conference in June and the iPhone launch in September, but who knows if shares can take off without an AI tie-in? He suspects analysts are buying as estimates are cut, but interest will remain tepid until Apple shows that global growth is accelerating as much as it's shrinking in China, and that services revenues are holding. They make great products and now trades at a PE lower than what we're used to. They make a lot of money, but doesn't grow as fast as we'd like (or is not growing). If you think there won't be an iPhone refresh, then this is a sell down to $120, but he expects another refresh, but institutions won't let Apple fall that low. Buy a tranche at $160 then add even more if it falls down to $130. The longs will make a stand based on next year's earnings.