Apple Inc (AAPL)

Multiple's higher than it's been in last 2-3 years. At a premium to some of the other Mag 7, where there's more growth. Headwinds on device side. Where's growth going to come from? China connection adds uncertainty. Ultimately fine, but not his choice.

Through history, periods of dormancy. iPhone cycle seems to have bottomed in last 2-3 months. Chinese sales up. 2B devices, 93% loyalty. Cashflow machine. This next cycle will include an AI opportunity. Yield is 0.5%.

Huge installed based with iPhones, growing internationally. No public AI offerings yet, but rumblings of partnerships. Huge upside potential in services business, with margins more attractive than manufacturing side. Happy to hold.

Shares have softened up. More than half the sales are still iPhone, but people are upgrading less often, revenue growth has slowed. Massive cashflow. Bright management. Valuation is too hefty for his liking, but hard to argue against the company. He prefers the software companies.

With all its R&D investment, sometime we may see the next killer device and the company return to growth again.

New development conference coming up could present investors with insights into new tech. Hard to tell whether the stock has fallen to bottom or not. Recent earnings better than expected. Next iPhone may have new items included which would be bullish for stock price. Pressure of Warren Buffett weight on the stock. Too early to tell direction of stock. 

They will remain an underperform and not a player in AI. Yes, they have a good installed base.

The buyback buys them some time, a smart move. Think of the refresh cycle later this year. But AI needs to be more relevant to their installed base to support that refresh. It's a second-half, show-me story.

Doesn't think the earnings increase justifies the $20 increase a weak. Is now 29x fowrad PE now. The share buyback is massive. He wrote a covered call this morning because today's move was huge. Take profits at $190-200.

Recent "peaks and troughs" making it difficult to value. Not convinced stock is heading back to $200/share. Expecting a pullback in stock price. Movement out of tech sector, not good for business. 

Generally, getting into AAPL when it's low on the RSI index has proven to be good. Moved down with the general markets. We'll see earnings tomorrow. His target is still $220. Wait and see, as they work through short-term issues.

He just sold it. It's had negative momentum for the last year, namely declining revenue growth. The last 3 years saw 13% revenue growth, but last quarter was only 2% and the last 4 quarter was -70 basis points.

Whenever you think that their fundamentals are reaching an inflexion point, this company proves you wrong. True, they have a loyal customer base and resilient earnings. However, price and momentum have dramatically deteriorated. Near-term, their technicals don't look good, though long-term their fundamentals always win out and you can't bet against that. It depends on your outlook, short or long term? If you expect choppy markets, then Apple is defensive.

China remains their Achilles' heel, though the Tesla news today about China offers a halo effect. China doesn't want its citizens to buy Apple's phones.