Apple Inc (AAPL-Q)

It keeps rallying along with other big tech stocks. Just hit new highs. We can't live without their phones, because they are so great. He expects the current Dept. of Justice lawsuit against Apple for monopolizing phones will be overturned under the new White House. Today, Apple announce a new IOS. Shares are up 28% this year.

No, own it, don't trade it. Yes, it's expensive historically, but Apple tends to then issue good news. As for China, LULU just announced good numbers out of China, and the Chinese government will do some stimulus. Apple will get through this period. At least, hold Apple and see what happens.

Great and innovative company, ubiquitous. The Mag 7 names he owns have better growth prospects. Diversified away from the iPhone, but still very levered to the its replacement cycle. China sales are a big driver, and have not been great. Upgrades no longer as compelling.

Fortress cash on balance sheet. Not a super-demanding valuation. Won't fall off a cliff, but organic growth challenged.

Don't listen to him, listen to Warren Buffett. Warren's been selling pretty aggressively. It's been fantastic, but there are cheaper alternatives in the group with more growth potential. Still over 30x PE. iPhone is a mature business. Move out of the position, or reduce your weight a bit.

AI will benefit other mega-caps more. Despite litigation, he can get GOOG for under 20x PE, and it has better growth and ancillary assets. Same with META. See his Top Picks.

Compounding machine. Prices keep going up for iPhones, and they keep finding ways to extract more $$ from customers each month. A bit worried about anti-trust and tariffs. China is an additional risk, though Chinese business has been performing well despite the weakness there.

For the price you're paying for earnings growth of about 10%, there are more exciting names in the internet-focused area such as GOOG, AMZN, META and MSFT.

He sold covered calls on Wednesday to ride high volatility. He did it to add some hedging as well as cash flow.

Scores 3/10 for value, but 8/10 in fundamentals. The street sees 8% upside. They last beat earnings, but net income took a hit from a one-time European tax. IPhone sales surged 6% and there's a new IOS 18 update with AI features. All good. Are shifting from hardware to more profitable software, which is smart. She sees upside, but wait for a better entry point.

After they reported, shares went down, which he predicts will settle next week at $210-220. It's only Mag 7 stock that's too expensive. They can't exceed projections for the current quarter.

They report Thursday. The street has been so negative, that Apple will miss (weak iPhone orders, problems with China, competition). But shares have held in. Their report has to be perfect, though.

Shares are fairly or over-valued. He likes Apple. But most of their profits come from hardware, which offer thinner margins than software or cloud margins. Trades at a high 30x-plus PE, which means the earnings stream must grow by 25-30%. It will grow, but by that much?

This year, Apple has given market performance, not bad. But this will be a slow iPhone upgrade path, incremental. Also, how much AI sentiment is baked into the stock. She predicts 5% revenue and earnings growth with a lot of stock buybacks. It's a long-term story of a beloved stock. It will continue to be a market performer and holders won't sell it.

Wait next week for their report to hear about their AI initiatives, which will be available only in English. So, overseas markets will be less excited. It will be a slow, underwhelming iPhone upgrade cycle. He notices that customers are buying the high-margin iPhone Pro Max phone--upgraders prefer the bigger, better phone. At 23x 2025 adjusted EBITDA, Apple is not cheap, above the average of 20x. Again, watch for the AI report.

When the company announce Apple Intelligence, shares surged, based on the expectation of a super-cycle upgrade. But this is not happening. Also, shares are vulnerable at a low-30s PE. But automatically, passive flows go into Apple.

It's overvalued, yes, but it will continue to perform along with the market. The real issue is China, their key market, where Huawei is making good strides. As Apple moves operations to India, he expects repercussions from China.