Apple Inc (AAPL-Q)

Is skeptical about the impact of AI on their iPhone upgrade cycle.

Their iPhone upgrade cycle could be meaningful because of AI to boost functionality.

Is underweight and not his favourite tech stock. It could beat next week. Their shrinking market in China is not news; but no stock can rely on growth there. Share buybacks will impact. Isn't a big believer in AI for Apple. At 30x PE, he wouldn't add to it here. There will be an iPhone upgrade cycle driven by AI, but not a super cycle.

It's well-known that they're losing market share in China, but we're seeing stabilization. She expects one more quarter of negative growth, then there'll be easy comparisons and will stabilize. It'll enter an iPhone supercycle based on over 200 million phones that haven't been upgraded in 4 years. AI will help their apps business and boasts high margins. She sees $7.50-8 in EPS in 2025 or 2026.

If you plan to hold for a long time, you're looking for whether it can continue to grow EPS at a high pace. He's looking for total returns of double-digit rates. Hopefully, he can get that from a combination of share buybacks and dividend increases.

Next iteration of the iPhone should lead to strong upgrades. Spends lots of money on R&D. Every company in technology wants access to people who have iPhones. People just don't switch from iPhones, including his 80-year-old mother.

Had lagged the Magnificent 7, but recent huge spike up since announcement of Apple Intelligence on investor day. Spike based on expectations of a nice refresh cycle, as Intelligence only available on iPhone 15 or later. China sales slowed last year, but picking up. Targeting India as a growth area, despite lower price points.

Don't chase. Wait for market pullback. Likes it long term.

He bought this in 2006 and it's been a super compounder since. But he's trimmed this 7-8 times to manage his portfolio, and risk management is crucial.

He just sold an Apple covered call of $245 in 3 weeks. Shares have recently risen from $160 to $230.

(Note the short timeframe.) Technical analysis helped him pick the level to buy this one, especially RSI. Has been re-rated, breakout above $200 means he can see it going to $270 range in next 12 months. Still more upside; keep holding or buy.

He bought more because he expects a huge upgrade cycle in their iPhones. He went to iStore and had to wait in a long line. People were buying iPads and store clerks said that business has been strong.

There will be an upgrade cycle to rival that of the iPhone 6 which offered a bigger screen. The new phone will feature AI.

Underperforming on RSI. Not that it was going down, but was going sideways when everything else was going up. Blasted above $195 and has moved into the top zone in relative strength. That big break out suggests more buying, even though talk this week is about rebalancing for less AAPL and more NVDA. Has held up nicely above $200 and rising within the RSI ranking. Yield is 0.47%.

His hesitation has always lied with its reliance on their phone for revenues. It's an iPhone company doing phenomenally well with a software valuation. Yes, services are comprising more of its revenues, but they have a long way to go. Prefers MSFT.

Lots of AI hype, started announcing features to boost sales. Last quarter's results were the fifth out of six that revenues fell. Growth problem. Topline hasn't grown for over 1.5 years. People are holding onto phones longer.

Sells to consumers, whereas MSFT sells to corporations. Consumers have limited needs versus a corporation. So AAPL has to find something else to move the needle.