Westjet Airlines (WJA.TO)

The stock has been going down. It is approaching a critical level according to Model Price theory: EBB-1 level is $17.80. His Model Price is $26.64, which is almost a 50% upside. However, if the stock drops below EBB-1, it could drop to EBB-2, which is $15. He would take a half-position at this level, but if it goes lower, he would sell and buy closer to $14.82. The market is concerned about recent news, such as the unionizing of its staff. However, a positive catalyst in the news could boost the stock an easy 25%. Making money on this stock might require trading around the levels rather than buying and holding.

His model price is $27.69, 46% higher than the current price, but the stock’s technicals are giving a sell signal and the earnings estimates have been crashing. Since 2010, the stock has hit this level three times and done fantastically after that. He would buy a little bit here but would not buy more until the stock gives a positive buy signal. If it drops much further, he would sell. If oil prices drop, WestJet will do very well.

Airlines are now profitable and generate decent cash flow. He prefers Air Canada, but Westjet's headwinds are behind them and the recovery in western Canada is a tailwind. Fair valuation. A decent time to enter this.

His long term view is very negative on the airline industry. This industry has had the highest level of bankruptcies. It is not a great industry to invest in but you could trade it. He is a trader of airlines. They did better recently by adjusting for energy prices, but he does not see a bottom in the industry.

The airline business is very competitive. Route expansions and higher oil prices are creating headwinds. He would not recommend buying more right now. They are well managed. It may not be a bad time to enter, but the space is difficult to make this a long term hold.

He owns no airlines. Westjet is resolving its pilot strike. For the last decade, a lot of traffic was going to Alberta during the oil boom. That's passed. If you buy a Canadian airline, Air Canada is better--cash flow is kicking in. U.S. airlines
are slightly better than Canadian ones, too.

It's a well-run company and its stock has had a good run. But over the years lumbering Air Canada has caught up to Westjet which has lost its competitive advantage. AC will do better than Westjet going foward. (He owns AC.)

They're under strike now and bookings are down. Now is probably a good entry point. But he doesn't like airlines. Oil is a big cost, followed by labour. It's a difficult business. There's probably a 5-10% relief rally when they settle this
strike.

Airlines, autos are the kind of stocks he trades on a short leash. A drop in big volume that the one they just had is never good. Going to have some headline problems in the short term.

The stock has taken a hit over fuel prices, competition from discount carriers and issues with staff. It's starting to look a little more attractive. It's is in a boom-bust industry, and now airlines are booming. But for how long? He can't get excited over this stock. Still too expensive for him.

He doesn’t own this. Airlines are very cyclical and are traditionally poor capital allocators. WestJet has been better with capital, but there are concerns after the pushing out of their CEO. The underlying issue might have been labor relations and perhaps the new CEO can manage this better. However, airlines are getting late in their cycle, so the sector has a lot of risk. WestJet is trying to grow internationally, which is inconsistent with their original focus on the local market using one type of plane.

He doesn’t own this. Airlines are very cyclical and are traditionally poor capital allocators. WestJet has been better with capital, but there are concerns after the pushing out of their CEO. The underlying issue might have been labor relations and perhaps the new CEO can manage this better. However, airlines are getting late in their cycle, so the sector has a lot of risk. WestJet is trying to grow internationally, which is inconsistent with their original focus on the local market using one type of plane.

There is a lot of uncertainty around the company because of the launch of the discount carrier as well as the change of CEO suddenly. It has been a very well run company and did a good job. Buy it on weakness below $20.

(Market Call Minute.) There are opportunities in the travel side of the business. Not a company he follows actively. This is the 3rd year the North American Airlines are making decent money. Thinks this company will benefit from that trend. The biggest concern would be on rising fuel costs. If oil hits $75, it will be one of the biggest cost variables.

Prefers Air Canada (AC-T), but this is still in the sweet spot. An uptrend was established in early 2016, after making a peak at around $35. Some of the indicators are starting to come up. This is in the right space, and should go much higher.