Whitecap ResourcesWCP.TOTOP PICKAug 03, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 14, 2026. Market Open.
Would name it top pick again. Based on $70 WTI, WCP has 20% upside to $22.50; at $80, it's $26. He wouldn't be surprised if WCP was bought out. WCP has a super inventory in the Montney and Duvernay and at least 17 years of stay-flat inventory. The CEO always buys shares on weakness, strong balance sheet and pays a dividend of 4%. Modest growth.
It is a mid-cap oil stock and their largest holding. It is one of the most misunderstood companies and is cheap without reason. Management has done an awesome job in its operations and it has beaten expectations in many quarters. It has well over 2 decades of very high quality inventory. US companies are eyeing Canadian companies Whitecap has 5.3 times cash flow and he sees a 40 % upside. Pays a dividend.
27% gas, the rest is oil. Now the 5th largest oil producer in Canada. Market cap of $20B. Extremely well run. Lots of contiguous land, long reserve life. Probably one of the strongest takeout candidates. Trades ~5x cashflow, with considerable upside.
With ARX being taken out, more institutions will be interested. Yield is 4.6%.
The oil floor has risen since the US-Iran war, but alot of supply will come in soon. The oil price will test $70. Sanctions lifted, Iran can sell at market prices. Canadian producers are well-positioned. The CAD is at 70 cents, which means C$90 a barrel (based on US$70 barrels). He likes WCP; they've consolidated into a sizable-enough player.
All-time high today. Meaningfully mispriced. Top assets in Montney and Duvernay. Sell your ARX right now and buy this. Continues to beat quarter after quarter after quarter. CEO has the most aggressive insider buying of any company he follows in Canada.
Potential takeover (but, he really hopes, not anytime soon). Yield is 4.48%.
WCP boils down whether you expect the US-Iran war will continue or end soon. Unfortunately, we expect it to drag on, given the pattern of ceasefire-fighting-ceasefire. The fact is Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the flow of crude oil. Trump can do little to change that except threaten. Even if the war completely stopped in August, sweeping the strait of mines could take six month and returning to normal shipping volumes could take 18 months or more. All this puts oil companies in the driver's seat as crude oil prices will not return to sub-$60, pre-war levels and likely will fall no lower than $70, as we saw a month ago.