Visa Inc. (V)

Are worries that the economy will crack and the consumer is weak, but data does not support this. Visa transactions are growing 7-9%. Their PE has re-rated lower, historically.

Likes Mastercard a little more, but likes both. Periodically, they sell off. They are cyclical in terms of the market loving and not loving them.

Overhang has been potential disruption in digital payments. Lagged S&P, and multiple's come down. Benefiting from the broader theme of moving from cash to credit. Growing revenues 10-11%. It'll come through this OK. Probably 15% earnings growth. Valuation not stretched at 22-23x PE. He's positive.

His firm owns MA instead. 

A network for digital payments, the largest in the world. This allows it to be the most profitable. Valuation quite reasonable. Over time, as more and more transactions have gone digital, it's been a primary beneficiary and he expects this to continue. Part of the business model assumes anti-competitive penalties from time to time.

In terms of AI, they're already incorporating it across the platform to make security more robust or to detect fraud. As well, the networks of V and MA are very difficult, perhaps impossible, to replicate. That's what allows its moat to endure.

The stock has been flat the past year, trades below the market multiple and consumers will get their tax rebate and spend.

They are among the highest-quality businesses in the world. They get knocked around occasionally over concerns about interchange fees or PayPal or something threatening them. There's always something. If you own, you've done very well, and have a long-term horizon. Doesn't prefer one. You can own both. Buy it and forget it.

First-rate operation. As a value investor, not attracted to it simply because of the multiple (always high). Not surprised by recent flat performance -- it could just be stock price catching up to the multiple. As earnings grow, you may eventually get a margin of safety.

As global economy and GDP increase, and as inflation keeps at its clip, the nominal value of sales will go up. That will benefit a company like Visa. People will be spending more $$, and Visa takes a percentage of every dollar.

Concerns on earnings and its moat. Wondering if some erosion in the moat to fintech competitors (slowly now, but accelerating). So high PE may no longer be justified.

Trump wants major banks to open up competition on credit cards. It is not a law yet but if that happened it should be manageable for Visa. It has the largest global network of the four credit card companies in the US. Its operations are scalable and it can pull back on operations, expenses and consumer rewards.                  Buy 42  Hold 7  Sell 0

You have the spin from the government, budget deficits, etc. With a stimulative environment and inflation they get more money since they take a percentage of the increase in prices. History has shown that every time the Mastercard and Visa category gets hit, it's a mistake not to buy. Therefore if there is punitive legislation from the Trump administration, it is time to buy.       Buy 42, Hold 7  Sell 0

Just as with MA (which he also owns), Visa dominates fees charged and, therefore, controls its earnings. Very few players can upend them. Pursuing more technology advances. Visa trades at 27x forward PE, growing at probably 15+%. Very good valuation for a company with only 1 major competitor.

Visa has been weak technically, not participating in recent market moves. Still above 200-day MA today, and that's moving higher. Up 14% in last 12 months, which isn't that bad ;)

Market should broaden out as we look ahead. There are few companies that trade at a discount to long-term averages, but with the same or faster growth than in the past. AI means less use of cash, but also increased velocity of transactions. Same entrenched dominant position going forward. Yield is 0.77%.

His top pick for 2026. Should be a great year for fintech given falling rates and less regulation and AI implementation. A few weeks ago, they announced they would introduce stablecoin via a partnership with Circle to offer global remittances, which charge up to 6% per transfer. A huge market and a great disruption opportunity due to Visa's large user base.  The deal isn't baked into shares.

Has owned this forever. The Circle deal to introduce stablecoin to Visa will boost Visa, with very high margins. The deal isn't baked into shares.