UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)

Is down 7% this year, but was upgraded today and their pharmacy business is up 12%. In election years, healthcare struggles, and UNH has recovered from February's cyber attack. He likes this as a second-half 2024 and 2025 play. It's an earnings compounder.

Will continue to own shares. Short term pressures not a concern. Investors should take a long term view. Deferred procedures have started to increase after Covid-19. Profits continue to increase as demand for healthcare rises. Aging population also good for the business. 

Company not performing as well as other options in the market. Political risk in business - could have exposure to US Federal election. Would not recommend investing at this time. 

Rebounded strongly from lows. Q1 results calmed fears, back into growth mode. Biggest growth area is Medicare, which is for seniors, paid for by government. Moving into a stronger pricing environment for Medicare. Trading at 17x for 15% earnings growth over next 3-4 years. Yield is 1.4%.

Will gain market share over time. It's a scale game. The lower-cost producers will win at the end of the day.

He's been buying this weakness. Lots of risk. Can't recommend it.

Behemoth. Long-term demographics makes this a name you want to hold. Shares trending flat for the last couple of years. 200-day MA is sideways at this point, and shares are slightly below that point. Yield is 1.5%, nothing fantastic, but likes it long term.

Earnings should continue to grow, about 12% growth right now. Not a lot of strong competitors in the space. In healthcare, money has gone into the growthier names like LLY and NVO.

They should have reported that computer hack sooner, but they boast a great balance sheet. That said, he doesn't like the health insurance industry now.

They report this week. Listen for what they say about their cyber hack and the recent Medicare announcement (will this overhang endure?).

It reports next week. Is hitting a 52-week low today. He bought it higher, at $470, last month. Don't buy ahead of earnings. They're taking punch after punch. He's close to being stopped out of his position. He will watch for guidance. If it's a sell-the-news event, he might sell.

Massive compounder of 13-16% over decades. Endemic pressures on medical loss ratio. Under DOJ scrutiny on market concentration. Looking for 11% growth. Weakness provides good entry point, massive demographic tailwinds.

From a thematic standpoint, his firm is about a 1/3 weight in healthcare, so pretty underweight. Across the group, there are a few specific pharma companies, like LLY, that are really knocking the cover off the vault. And a bunch not doing so well.

Biotech and medical devices have been sort of sloppy. Now there's trouble with some of the managed-care companies. In general, even though the XLV price is moving higher, relative strength vs. the rest of the market has been hitting YTD lows. Underperforming sector. Better places to focus right now.

Down 6% in Q1, hurt by higher medical costs (like Humana) as the biggest health insurer in the US. Then after the bell today, the government limited increases in the health insurers' policies. The February data in health hack didn't help. But UNH has a good chance of a bounce back in the next two days.

You should look beyond tech which is pulling back now. Healthcare offers earnings growth ahead, like device companies. UNH has lagged this year due to utilization rates as medical expenses go higher. 

Great company. He owns ELV, trades at 4-5 multiple points lower, fundamentals are equally good.

Whole group has stalled a bit over medical cost ratios and medical costs in general. Government is repricing programs, and it's affecting margins. Companies will fight through it, trading inexpensively, very solid growth metrics. Not afraid to buy any of them, and his choice is ELV.

Won't touch this group, including Humana, which is in a massive reset.