Opinions
The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong
UnitedHealth Group Inc
UNH-N
TOP PICK
Jan 02, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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It has had issues and it has been a tough year facing several challenges. Owns it in the global equity fund. He is waiting for the conference call tomorrow which should talk about how the issues are being dealt with. They have pulled their guidance on EPS and the new CEO could be putting out a new guidance level. Wait for the base line to grow but there is long term upside.
Nothing is too big to fail, but UNH is so integrated into the US healthcare system that they are an essential service. Problem is more people are getting utilization in areas that are higher cost. So, their estimates got blown out. Has long owned this. He recommended it for its multiyear consistent earnings. They just reported and are guiding resumption of growth in 2026. Is at a 35% discount to its 3-year forward earnings. He was buying this morning on their earnings call.
Numbers are fantastic, nothing wrong there. Potential fraud, being investigated. You can't quantify something like that. When he doesn't know, he has to step aside. There's already enough risk in the stock market when you buy the "perfect" company, and it can still go down 10%. He's willing to miss a bit of any upside and wait for a resolution to the story.
Dark clouds are concern about overstated revenues plus current regulatory environment. If you want to invest in something and look like a hero a year from now, you could take a very small percentage. Taking on risk if something else blows up. Can't see a basing pattern yet.
Stock's PE is cheap, but he sees negative earnings growth over next few years. Reports of hedge fund companies getting in is a positive. Very oversold.
RFK Jr.'s crusade to cut health costs includes cutting vaccines, and that is a serious headwind. The result is that broad healthcare hasn't been this cheap in a long time and you can enter it now. People will still need therapies and get sick. Are better opportunities than UNH in healthcare.
On top of medical loss ratio issue, now being investigated by DOJ on billing practices. Suspects this will be like a WFC scenario -- clouds will hang over the name and will take a long time to clear. EPS revised down from $25 to $16, so who knows what they'll actually be by year's end.
Likes HMOs in general as a business that reprices YOY. If you're a very long-term investor and you want to take a stab, it's not going away anytime soon. But expect a bumpy ride for the next 1-6 quarters.
American healthcare
As noted, 2023 was unkind to healthcare stocks, but UNH shed only 1%, thanks to a rebound in Q4. UNH remains America's biggest health insurer. It beat its last four quarters, trades at a safe 0.62 beta as well as a 22.85x PE, which is historically in-line. Earlier in 2023, the stock took a hit when the company noted that post-Covid the U.S. was seeing a rebound in elective surgeries, which would increase medical costs and cut into UNH's margins. However, this is a passing concern. View UNH in the long-term. Its shares have climbed 144% in five years and the projectory has been largely up, though the last two years have been bumpy. As we exit post-Covid, Wall Street expect UNH to resume its climb. Analysts signal 20 buys, one overweight, five holds and one sell with a price target of $594.61, nearly 13% higher than its last close of $526.47. Go long on UNH.