Joe Terranova UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH-N BUY Aug 11, 2025

Nothing is too big to fail, but UNH is so integrated into the US healthcare system that they are an essential service. Problem is more people are getting utilization in areas that are higher cost. So, their estimates got blown out. Has long owned this. He recommended it for its multiyear consistent earnings. They just reported and are guiding resumption of growth in 2026. Is at a 35% discount to its 3-year forward earnings. He was buying this morning on their earnings call.

Numbers are fantastic, nothing wrong there. Potential fraud, being investigated. You can't quantify something like that. When he doesn't know, he has to step aside. There's already enough risk in the stock market when you buy the "perfect" company, and it can still go down 10%. He's willing to miss a bit of any upside and wait for a resolution to the story.

Dark clouds are concern about overstated revenues plus current regulatory environment. If you want to invest in something and look like a hero a year from now, you could take a very small percentage. Taking on risk if something else blows up. Can't see a basing pattern yet.

Stock's PE is cheap, but he sees negative earnings growth over next few years. Reports of hedge fund companies getting in is a positive. Very oversold.

He re-entered this, because the stock was moving up. Later, he realized it was because of Buffett buying it. The fundamentals alone are dead money. Expect it to hit $325 then pause. They won't resume growth till 2026.

Buffett's very smart and can give you a reason to look at a stock. Catching a falling knife isn't his strategy. Turnaround will not be quick or smooth. He's avoided healthcare for the most part, owning just BSX.

Is -39% this year. The fact that Buffett is buying shares doesn't influence him. He needs to hear the company sell their story.

RFK Jr.'s crusade to cut health costs includes cutting vaccines, and that is a serious headwind. The result is that broad healthcare hasn't been this cheap in a long time and you can enter it now. People will still need therapies and get sick. Are better opportunities than UNH in healthcare.

On top of medical loss ratio issue, now being investigated by DOJ on billing practices. Suspects this will be like a WFC scenario -- clouds will hang over the name and will take a long time to clear. EPS revised down from $25 to $16, so who knows what they'll actually be by year's end.

Likes HMOs in general as a business that reprices YOY. If you're a very long-term investor and you want to take a stab, it's not going away anytime soon. But expect a bumpy ride for the next 1-6 quarters.

It has seen many problems this year, including missing earnings and lowering guidance. Insurance is tough to understand, especially when connected to Medicare.  Then again, the valuation fell and aging demographics are tailwinds. UNH is a turnaround story and will need time. It's weird that Buffett is investing in this, since he doesn't invest in turnarounds. Too many moving parts for him to study. He avoids healthcare.