Affirm Holdings (AFRM)

Reports terrific numbers yesterday. Is very profitable. Q3 revenues and adjusted EPS beat. Is up 30% since the early April lows, but down 13% this year.

A month ago, they delivered a great quarter: 12% earnings beat and strong revenue beat. Share popped then went sideways over consumer worries. The consumer is actually fine.

EPS of $0.2 beat estimates of $0.12 and sales of $876.42M beat estimates of $834.35M. Sales grew 33% year-over-year, and guidance was above analyst estimates. Management noted strong consumer demand for its buy now, pay later services and increasing adoption of 0% APR offerings by merchants helped to lift results. Its merchant network grew 24%, and overall management expects continued momentum. We think this was a really strong quarter, and while it trades at a high valuation of 42X forward earnings, we think its momentum can continue here.
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The froth has come off during this sell off and now it's time to buy.

Fresh buy signal today that could go away tomorrow (if there's a bit of weakness), but it's trying to catch hold. Longer term looks really good. Looking at the big swings of volatility, could come back to the $37 range and it would still be good long term.

Falling rates will help this company since the spread will widen. Volatile since if the economy softens, delinquencies could be a problem.

It has a giant short position, and every time the stock goes down, the street pulls it up. The actual quarter in mid-February will probably be good. It's a sucker's game to short this.

They've turned the corner. Their quarter was remarkable.