Darren Sissons UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH-N DON'T BUY Aug 26, 2025

She averaged down and bought at $273 in May. Stock's been under a lot of pressure. Largest US healthcare manager, with strong vertical integration. Guidance cut, EPS outlook dropped. Under 11x forward PE despite 13-16% long-term target EPS growth. Sees ~25% upside from here.

It has had issues and it has been a tough year facing several challenges. Owns it in the global equity fund. He is waiting for the conference call tomorrow which should talk about how the issues are being dealt with. They have pulled their guidance on EPS and the new CEO could be putting out a new guidance level. Wait for the base line to grow but there is long term upside.

Nothing is too big to fail, but UNH is so integrated into the US healthcare system that they are an essential service. Problem is more people are getting utilization in areas that are higher cost. So, their estimates got blown out. Has long owned this. He recommended it for its multiyear consistent earnings. They just reported and are guiding resumption of growth in 2026. Is at a 35% discount to its 3-year forward earnings. He was buying this morning on their earnings call.

Numbers are fantastic, nothing wrong there. Potential fraud, being investigated. You can't quantify something like that. When he doesn't know, he has to step aside. There's already enough risk in the stock market when you buy the "perfect" company, and it can still go down 10%. He's willing to miss a bit of any upside and wait for a resolution to the story.

Dark clouds are concern about overstated revenues plus current regulatory environment. If you want to invest in something and look like a hero a year from now, you could take a very small percentage. Taking on risk if something else blows up. Can't see a basing pattern yet.

Stock's PE is cheap, but he sees negative earnings growth over next few years. Reports of hedge fund companies getting in is a positive. Very oversold.

He added more last week and today. The market wants momentum.

He re-entered this, because the stock was moving up. Later, he realized it was because of Buffett buying it. The fundamentals alone are dead money. Expect it to hit $325 then pause. They won't resume growth till 2026.

Buffett's very smart and can give you a reason to look at a stock. Catching a falling knife isn't his strategy. Turnaround will not be quick or smooth. He's avoided healthcare for the most part, owning just BSX.

Is -39% this year. The fact that Buffett is buying shares doesn't influence him. He needs to hear the company sell their story.