Paul MacDonald UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH-N PAST TOP PICK Jul 29, 2025

He added more last week and today. The market wants momentum.

He re-entered this, because the stock was moving up. Later, he realized it was because of Buffett buying it. The fundamentals alone are dead money. Expect it to hit $325 then pause. They won't resume growth till 2026.

Buffett's very smart and can give you a reason to look at a stock. Catching a falling knife isn't his strategy. Turnaround will not be quick or smooth. He's avoided healthcare for the most part, owning just BSX.

Is -39% this year. The fact that Buffett is buying shares doesn't influence him. He needs to hear the company sell their story.

RFK Jr.'s crusade to cut health costs includes cutting vaccines, and that is a serious headwind. The result is that broad healthcare hasn't been this cheap in a long time and you can enter it now. People will still need therapies and get sick. Are better opportunities than UNH in healthcare.

On top of medical loss ratio issue, now being investigated by DOJ on billing practices. Suspects this will be like a WFC scenario -- clouds will hang over the name and will take a long time to clear. EPS revised down from $25 to $16, so who knows what they'll actually be by year's end.

Likes HMOs in general as a business that reprices YOY. If you're a very long-term investor and you want to take a stab, it's not going away anytime soon. But expect a bumpy ride for the next 1-6 quarters.

It has seen many problems this year, including missing earnings and lowering guidance. Insurance is tough to understand, especially when connected to Medicare.  Then again, the valuation fell and aging demographics are tailwinds. UNH is a turnaround story and will need time. It's weird that Buffett is investing in this, since he doesn't invest in turnarounds. Too many moving parts for him to study. He avoids healthcare.

When a stock of this size and growth drops 50% in a year, he gets tempted. He entered it slightly a few weeks ago, then Buffett revealed his position in it which has lifted shares. Hasn't made a full position, given the investigation into it. We've probably seen the worst for UNH. CVS is a cheaper way to play the private benefits market, so he added that recently and it offers a better valuation than UNH.

She sold as headwinds mounted and too many leadeship changes. Berkshire's stake renewed attention in this name, but shares dropped again after an earnings miss and guidance cut.

Nice bounce off recent low, now drifting. Could be an emerging consolidation within the downtrend, but hasn't yet broken the downtrend. You'd need to see it get above $380-400. Defensive, value names not participating in the rally the same way that cyclicals are.