Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)

Great little company. Has now seen 6 consecutive quarters of beats and some raises. Intermediate oil producer busy consolidating in Clearwater, one of the hottest plays in Canada. Production has grown ~10% YOY on average. Reduced net debt by 17% and share count by 6%. High-efficiency wells, strong FCF. Very good netbacks.

Looking for more moderate growth, especially with oil in low $60s. Sees a probable CAGR of 3-5% over next 5 years (which could ramp up with higher oil). Breakeven is in low $40s US per barrel. Returns ~60% of capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Yield is 2.54%.

TVE has reported record production and upped its production guidance for the year. It has also made a nice bolt-on acquisition and is seeing some broker target price upgrades. YTD return is now 14.6%. While it is not beyond possibility, we would not see the move due to a takeover. Much of the gain is due to company reasons and not necessarily correlated to pipeline stocks. We would remain comfortable as buyers. 
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He owned it in the past but not now. They buy a field and enhance the recovery. It is ramping up production and cash flow. Has performed quite well in the past.

Major low in 2024, and then higher lows and highs. Really likes the setup. Given where we are in the cycle, don't add aggressively here. Very bullish Canada longer term, so energy should definitely participate.

It also has assets in Clearwater, and elsewhere. In the last quarter, production was up and Capex was down. It has been very acquisitive developing a very good inventory position and improving its reserve life index over time. He feels it has more upside potential than others. When asked what percentage in a portfolio would he apply to any of these picks, he felt that in a truly diversified portfolio perhaps 1/2 to 1%, maximum 2 to 3%.
Buy 9  Hold 1  Sell 0

It is just below their minimum market cap requirement of $2.8 billion but ranks well in their data base and is reasonably priced. Its earnings estimates are set to decline by 45% this year and 63% next year. Much depends on the price of oil. Imperial Oil ranks better. 

Trades at a 10% free cash flow yield. Pays a 3.4% dividend yield. They can keep production flat down to $42 oil, among the lowest break-evens for a Canadian company. Are seeing great results. Share buybacks over time make this a sit and wait name. For Canadian oil names, the stay-afloat price of oil is $51 a barrel to maintain production and the dividend.

He's been adding; he remains a top shareholder in this. He likes that most of their production is exposed to the Clearwater. Super economical: their payback period on a well is 10-11 months. All companies benefit from a weak loonie, because they sell in USD and bring back that money to Canada. They trade at 3.3x cash flow this year, 2.8x next. Their cash flow yield now is 18% and 20% forward. Pays under a 4% dividend, plus buybacks. He targets $7 in a year at $70 oil.

If you assume oil prices go up, and assume they all execute well, which is the buy right now? He likes the upfront dividend. VRN is cheapest on price and financial metrics. Production outlook posted a few days ago is quite positive.

Not sure if the easiest thesis is to buy energy right now with Trump trying to attack the price of oil. But within the group, VRN is a name that works pretty well.

Cheap PE. Likes it. Nothing wrong with TVE, but these stocks are tied to the oil price. Is well run. They hold long-life reserves. The oil prices has more upside than down.

Energy stocks have been sideways this year, but TVE is pushing higher. It pays a 3.5% dividend yield. For the past 2 years, natural gas has gone sideways, but in recent weeks, it has broken to the upside. This is exciting, showing a change in trend.

Hit or exceeded numbers for 3 quarters in a row. People have come back to the story. 20 years of stay-flat inventory in the Clearwater, a massively economic play. Benefit of incremental FCF lowering the decline rate. Shareholders likely to get 60% of FCF for the next several years as it pays down debt. 

Mid-cap, but doing very well. Deep value. Still believes in $80 oil one day, which would translate to 17% FCF yield, and that's where the juice of the mid-cap shines. Yield is 3.4%.

Company has hit guidance targets 3 quarters in a row - out of the penalty box as a result. Pure play on Clearwater/Charlie Lake oil plays. Wells are paying our multiple times in ~2 years. Very economic oil metrics. Trading at a steep discount to NAV and cash flow multiples. Would recommend buying at this price. Management buying stock aggressively. 

He's stuck with it through some real pain. Hit its numbers for 2 quarters in a row, exceeding expectations. Beat on higher production and lower capex. At least 20 years of high-quality, stay-flat inventory. 60% of free cashflow to shareholders, meaningful buybacks. 18% free cashflow yield, 1/2 in buybacks and 1/2 as dividend. Yield is 3.74%.

Sees $8.32 one year out, 71-104% potential upside 2 years out.

Has its ups and downs, can be more volatile, so the dividend can help. These small caps are quite dependent on the energy price. Nice run earlier this year; now just bouncing between $3.50 and $4.25, looking for direction.