Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)

Still a very large shareholder, about 8% weighting in his fund. Phenomenal job. Well results are absolutely spectacular. Lots of running room, 20+ years of drilling inventory. Trades at attractive forward multiple of 5.5x, fair would be 6-7x. On a conservative oil price, 20-30% upside from here, but he's more optimistic on oil.

One of only a very few oil names he owns.

Pretty volatile. Fast-growing. Chart shows recent strong momentum. Runup driven by production growth and cost discipline. Sensitive to oil prices and operational risk. Average target price is over $8. Single-digit upside potentially from here. Stock's never actually hit analysts' targets.

Recently raised dividend, posted strong earnings growth. If you own, consider trimming on strength and add on dips. For new buyers, wait for a pullback or at least consolidation.

Her energy exposure tends to be larger-cap such as CNQ and ENB.

Strong, and getting better. 90% of production coming from the Clearwater, which has very low decline and high return. Aggressively shifting wells to new technology earlier in the life cycle. Has an edge in the industry. 

Paying down debt using 60% of cashflow, now close to zero. Increasing shareholder returns. Believes it can grow production 5-10% a year over next several years, easily funded with cashflow. Dividend will grow ~20% a year for next 3-4 years. Yield is 2.12%.

Has really turned things around -- divesting tired assets and focusing on the Clearwater, where they're having spectacular results. At least 20 years of stay-flat inventory.

His firm prefers the larger caps for safety, durability, and dividend yield. For smaller caps to outperform, you need the commodity to work for you (and right now oil and gas are working against). Gradually people are returning to Canada on the basis of our lower decline rates, better prospects for transporting oil out of the country, and a government that might support further investment. All that's helping to buoy a company like this, that would normally be down with the commodity prices. 

Good case to be made that oil prices could rally from here. 

Great little company. Has now seen 6 consecutive quarters of beats and some raises. Intermediate oil producer busy consolidating in Clearwater, one of the hottest plays in Canada. Production has grown ~10% YOY on average. Reduced net debt by 17% and share count by 6%. High-efficiency wells, strong FCF. Very good netbacks.

Looking for more moderate growth, especially with oil in low $60s. Sees a probable CAGR of 3-5% over next 5 years (which could ramp up with higher oil). Breakeven is in low $40s US per barrel. Returns ~60% of capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Yield is 2.54%.

TVE has reported record production and upped its production guidance for the year. It has also made a nice bolt-on acquisition and is seeing some broker target price upgrades. YTD return is now 14.6%. While it is not beyond possibility, we would not see the move due to a takeover. Much of the gain is due to company reasons and not necessarily correlated to pipeline stocks. We would remain comfortable as buyers. 
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He owned it in the past but not now. They buy a field and enhance the recovery. It is ramping up production and cash flow. Has performed quite well in the past.

Major low in 2024, and then higher lows and highs. Really likes the setup. Given where we are in the cycle, don't add aggressively here. Very bullish Canada longer term, so energy should definitely participate.

It also has assets in Clearwater, and elsewhere. In the last quarter, production was up and Capex was down. It has been very acquisitive developing a very good inventory position and improving its reserve life index over time. He feels it has more upside potential than others. When asked what percentage in a portfolio would he apply to any of these picks, he felt that in a truly diversified portfolio perhaps 1/2 to 1%, maximum 2 to 3%.
Buy 9  Hold 1  Sell 0

It is just below their minimum market cap requirement of $2.8 billion but ranks well in their data base and is reasonably priced. Its earnings estimates are set to decline by 45% this year and 63% next year. Much depends on the price of oil. Imperial Oil ranks better. 

Trades at a 10% free cash flow yield. Pays a 3.4% dividend yield. They can keep production flat down to $42 oil, among the lowest break-evens for a Canadian company. Are seeing great results. Share buybacks over time make this a sit and wait name. For Canadian oil names, the stay-afloat price of oil is $51 a barrel to maintain production and the dividend.

He's been adding; he remains a top shareholder in this. He likes that most of their production is exposed to the Clearwater. Super economical: their payback period on a well is 10-11 months. All companies benefit from a weak loonie, because they sell in USD and bring back that money to Canada. They trade at 3.3x cash flow this year, 2.8x next. Their cash flow yield now is 18% and 20% forward. Pays under a 4% dividend, plus buybacks. He targets $7 in a year at $70 oil.

If you assume oil prices go up, and assume they all execute well, which is the buy right now? He likes the upfront dividend. VRN is cheapest on price and financial metrics. Production outlook posted a few days ago is quite positive.

Not sure if the easiest thesis is to buy energy right now with Trump trying to attack the price of oil. But within the group, VRN is a name that works pretty well.

Cheap PE. Likes it. Nothing wrong with TVE, but these stocks are tied to the oil price. Is well run. They hold long-life reserves. The oil prices has more upside than down.