Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)

Half its production comes from the Clearwater Formation, the hottest play in Canada. Very high margin, excellent leverage to differentials (WCS and WTI) pulling back to historic averages at the Transmountain comes online soon. However, they bought several companies and the market didn't like that. But they will reach their debt level in the second half of 2024 that will lead to 25% of free cash flow to return to investors and eventually reach 75%. He expects more debt reduction.

He bought a lot of oil in 2020 when it bottomed, and oil did well through 2022. Shares have come down since, but oil and gas prices remain good, and the stocks offer good free cash flows. But sentiment is not there. The Saudis don't want oil below $70/barrel, and they run OPEC. If you believe that the Saudis will cut production to maintain that price, then oil stocks are undervalued. The large-caps have the best balance sheets and are the most stable. Mid-caps are slightly more volatile and the small-caps are very but are really cheap though don't pay dividends. TVE is the best mid-cap with great assets in the Clearwater. The knock is that they made some acquisitions which raised their debt, but this is short term. He expects a rebound this year.

Higher cost, higher leveraged assets. Weak compared to others in the sector. But if we see strength in the energy sector, a name like this could perform better because the marginal increase can affect them more to the upside. Not one to own if you're only middling on energy.

Likes it and the energy space, but the malaise is down to weak oil and natural gas prices as well as the federal government being hostile to this space. TVE has grown very well in recent years. 

Awful. Finally hit numbers for the first time in modern history. Management's motivated to make sure execution continues. Trading at 3x $80 oil, 21% free cashflow yield, paying down debt. 68-114% potential upside at $80 oil.

Suffering a hangover from an acquisition binge. Reducing debt, so less return of capital to shareholders. 2024 will be an inflection point on debt, which should allow higher ROC to shareholders, increase dividend, or buy back shares.

Avoid the small oil producers. This has been underperforming the market a little. Chart tops were in 2022, bottom this year. If the stock hits that top, then take a look at this. Not in seasonality now.

Recent M&A not being rewarded. Too many shares have been sold after recent acquisitions. Not worried about share overhang. Recent quarterly numbers have beaten expectations. 88% exposure to Clearwater and Charlie Lake oil plays. Debt targets being met. Currently trading at 3x cash flow given $80 oil. 5x multiple appropriate for $8 share price target. Will continue to hold. 

The $123M sale of Cardium assets is not huge on TVE's $4B+ asset base, but it will reduce debt and, importantly, supports an acceleration of capital returns to shareholders (i.e. dividends and buybacks). TVE notes the sold assets were undercapitalized and it wants to focus on its Charlie Lake and Clearwater projects. The price of Delta can be debated, but it has only been a year and TVE has long term plans for the assets. 
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Terrible performance in stock.
Largest shareholder of company.
Will continue to buy shares.
High quality assets.
Recent acquisition negative on share priced (issued lots of shares).
Non-core Cardium assets on the market.
Trading at 28% free cash flow yield. 

Questions on drill results and quality of acreage.
Has owned shares in the past.
Prefers Headwater Exploration.

Repeated acquisitions have made the company better, but have also created a repeated liquidation overhang on the stock. Access to two of the most economic plays in NA. Trades at 2.7x at the current oil price. Too much debt. If can divest assets, momentum should kick in.

Done good job at consolidating Clearwater oil play in Alberta.
Good opportunity to average down share price.
Debt is higher than market wants.
Expecting higher energy prices going forward. 

He's been adding on dips. Aggressive last year buying assets. Need to de-lever debt. Exposed to most economic plays in Canada. Catalyst-light compared to other names. Value proposition is still very good. Meaningful leverage to the price of oil. Still lots of upside, depending on the oil price.

A lot of oil stocks are just coming into that base. He'd like to see it bounce, or you can take an initial leg in. Don't commit all at once, try 2% at a time out of a 6% position. See if it bases, buy a bit on a bounce, and then wait.