Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)

Avoid the small oil producers. This has been underperforming the market a little. Chart tops were in 2022, bottom this year. If the stock hits that top, then take a look at this. Not in seasonality now.

Recent M&A not being rewarded. Too many shares have been sold after recent acquisitions. Not worried about share overhang. Recent quarterly numbers have beaten expectations. 88% exposure to Clearwater and Charlie Lake oil plays. Debt targets being met. Currently trading at 3x cash flow given $80 oil. 5x multiple appropriate for $8 share price target. Will continue to hold. 

The $123M sale of Cardium assets is not huge on TVE's $4B+ asset base, but it will reduce debt and, importantly, supports an acceleration of capital returns to shareholders (i.e. dividends and buybacks). TVE notes the sold assets were undercapitalized and it wants to focus on its Charlie Lake and Clearwater projects. The price of Delta can be debated, but it has only been a year and TVE has long term plans for the assets. 
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Terrible performance in stock.
Largest shareholder of company.
Will continue to buy shares.
High quality assets.
Recent acquisition negative on share priced (issued lots of shares).
Non-core Cardium assets on the market.
Trading at 28% free cash flow yield. 

Questions on drill results and quality of acreage.
Has owned shares in the past.
Prefers Headwater Exploration.

Repeated acquisitions have made the company better, but have also created a repeated liquidation overhang on the stock. Access to two of the most economic plays in NA. Trades at 2.7x at the current oil price. Too much debt. If can divest assets, momentum should kick in.

Done good job at consolidating Clearwater oil play in Alberta.
Good opportunity to average down share price.
Debt is higher than market wants.
Expecting higher energy prices going forward. 

He's been adding on dips. Aggressive last year buying assets. Need to de-lever debt. Exposed to most economic plays in Canada. Catalyst-light compared to other names. Value proposition is still very good. Meaningful leverage to the price of oil. Still lots of upside, depending on the oil price.

A lot of oil stocks are just coming into that base. He'd like to see it bounce, or you can take an initial leg in. Don't commit all at once, try 2% at a time out of a 6% position. See if it bases, buy a bit on a bounce, and then wait.

Owns shares in company.
Excellent prospects if energy prices remain high.
High cost assets with good torque to commodity price.
Will continue to hold shares. 

Recent share price is lagging compared to other names in sector.
Believes current share price is presenting buying opportunity.
Canadian energy very under priced.
Good time to buy for long term investors. 

Working through debt after a 2-year acquisition binge. Looking for a return to higher shareholder capital returns. Now at 25% of free cashflow, and he's hoping for 75% by the end of this year, when it will look more interesting.

Active on M&A has been tough on shares.
Overhang on share count being reduced post Deltastream acquisition.
Paying down debt at high rate.
Exposure to Clearwater oil play (most economic oil play in North America).
Still 100% upside.

There is more interest and less risk in long life oil and large cap companies within the sector. Tamarack Valley is not a good risk reward investment.

Multi-year bull market for oil.
Large exposure to Clearwater oil play (most profitable in North America).
Largest shareholder of company (~44 million shares).
Returning 50% of free cash flow by the end of the year.
Meaningful upside in 23/24'.
Large reserve life buildup.
$100 oil price would see 200% upside to stock.